CalvinTy picks 5-15 to 5-21

[CalvinTy]

YTD 0-0 0.00 units (1st day; wish me luck)

NOTE: As mentioned in my introductory post in separate post, the picks come directly from my handicapper I subscribe to.

MLB: LAD (B. Tomko) at Col (J. Fogg) -105 1u
MLB: KC (J. Affeldt) +175 at Cle (P. Byrd) 1u
MLB: Bos (J. Beckett)/Bal (R. Lopez) Over 9.5, -105 1u
NBA: Det at Cle +6, -105 1u

For my 1st day, I'll keep this simple with all picks rating 1 unit even if I have varying confidence levels in the picks.

Though, of all picks, I am least confident in the Rockies against the Dodgers. Fogg have been unlucky matching up against C. Carpenter of StL & A. Harang of Cincy in the last 2 starts, but Fogg does put up reasonable numbers. Tomko hasn't given up any runs in either of his last 2 starts & he's having a good year so far. If anything, I'm considering making my personal bet on the Under 10.5 for say 0.5u, even if it's at Coors Field, haven't decided yet.

I like KC's Affeldt for the price and feel that Byrd is still slightly overrated & struggling this year. Just because Cle is home, the price gets inflated. Heck, Byrd already pitched to KC twice this past month, both at KC (4/22 & 5/8). His stats were 3IP, 7ER and more recently, 7IP, 3ER but lost both games. I like Jayhawk's line of thinking that this may be a good pick for 5 innings only as KC's bullpen sucks. I will check out the 5 inning line to see if I'll put 0.5u on KC's Affeldt as well.

Bos's Beckett and Bal's Lopez, in my opinion, are a perfect combination begging for Over considering that both clubs can hit if the opposing pitcher doesn't have a good game. The weather may play a factor as it's cloudy & expecting some showers at the game tonight. I am most confident with this one out of all.

I admit I am expecting Pistons to win against the Cavs, but I don't think they will cover. The achilles heel to this is the fact that Larry Hughes is still not expected to play tonight for the Cavs after the death of his brother. That puts the burden on LeBron even more.

* CalvinTy

[Dios1890]

Good Luck Calvin, thanks for posting up.

[CalvinTy]

Thanks. I feel flattered that your first post is on here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

* CalvinTy

[CalvinTy]

Yesterday 2-1 +0.95 units
YTD 2-1 +0.95 units

5/15 Results:

MLB: LAD (B. Tomko) at Col (J. Fogg) -105 1.05/1u {L, 5-4}
MLB: KC (J. Affeldt) +175 at Cle (P. Byrd) 1u/1.75u {PPD}
MLB: Bos (J. Beckett)/Bal (R. Lopez) Over 9.5, -105 1.05u/1u {W, 11-1}
NBA: Det at Cle +6, -105 1.05u/1u {W, 72-74}

Also, in my account, I did wager on Under 11, +100 on that LAD/Col game which stayed under. Tomko & Fogg did their jobs last night with the game tied at 2-2 after 6 inn (watched on MLB.TV). The Rockies bullpen faltered, especialy with Ramirez giving up 3ER in 7th after not giving up any ER in first 15 1/3 innings of relief.

Bos/Bal game went on a tear with Bos up 8-1 by 5th inning with Bos's Beckett unexpectedly impressive (watched on local TV). Though, I had to thank Boston for back-to-back homers in top of 9th to ensure the Over.

Today's picks coming up... need free coffee first at work. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

* CalvinTy

[CalvinTy]

Yesterday 2-1 +0.95 units
YTD 2-1 +0.95 units

5/16 plays:

MLB: Tor (T. Lilly) -110 at LAA (E. Santana) 1.1u/1u
MLB: SF (J. Wright) at Hou (W. Rodriguez) -150 1.5u/1u
MLB: NYM (T. Glavine) at StL (J. Suppan) -115 1.15u/1u
NBA: NJ at Mia -6.5, -115 1.15u/1u

Also, 2 additional personal bets:

MLB: CWS (B. McCarthy) at TB (S. Kazmir) -106 1.06u/1u
MLB: <parlay> Min (K. Lohse) at Det (N. Robertson) -180 & CWS (B. McCarthy) at TB (S. Kazmir) -106 0.5u/1.01u

My handicapper seem to like all 3 pitchers chosen (Lilly, Rodriguez, Suppan) as they have been chosen a couple of times already. I feel that all 3 games can be 1-run or 2-run games but in those pitchers' favor mainly due to struggles of the opposing pitchers if nothing else.

My bets *for* TB's Kazmir and bet *against* Minn's Lohse speaks for itself on why I like my picks. Credit to Jayhawk for mentioning those first already, though. I wanted a straight bet on TB, but not laying Detroit at -180 alone so that's why I am suggesting a straight bet on TB & a half unit parlay on TB & Det.

* CalvinTy

[CalvinTy]

Yesterday 2-4 -2.89 units
YTD 4-5 -1.94 units

5/16 results:

MLB: Tor (T. Lilly) -110 at LAA (E. Santana) 1.1u/1u {L, 3-8}
MLB: SF (J. Wright) at Hou (W. Rodriguez) -150 1.5u/1u {L, 14-3}
MLB: NYM (T. Glavine) at StL (J. Suppan) -115 1.15u/1u {L, 8-3}
NBA: NJ at Mia -6.5, -115 1.15u/1u {L, 105-106}

MLB: CWS (B. McCarthy) at TB (S. Kazmir) -106 1.06u/1u {W, 7-10}
MLB: <parlay> Min (K. Lohse) at Det (N. Robertson) -180 & CWS (B. McCarthy) at TB (S. Kazmir) -106 0.5u/1.01u {W, 4-7 & 7-10}

Bad day for my handicapper going 0-4 while I go 2-0, go figure. Today's picks available around 1pm.

* CalvinTy

[CalvinTy]

Yesterday 2-4 -2.89 units
YTD 4-5 -1.94 units

5/17 plays:

MLB: Phi (G. Floyd) +122 at Mil (D. Bush) 1u/1.22u
MLB: Cin (B. Arroyo) -160 at Pit (Ol. Perez) 1.6u/1u
MLB: Sea (J. Moyer) at Oak (B. Zito) -150 1.5u/1u
NBA: Cle/Det Over 179, -115 1.15u/1u

No personal bets planned yet, though, in my account, I might parlay Cincy & Over in NBA as I like those 2 the best.

* CalvinTy

[chan123bet]

How do you know if you have an edge betting Un/Ov? I think the line 179 was pretty sharp according to the recent scores by both teams.

[CalvinTy]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you know if you have an edge betting Un/Ov? I think the line 179 was pretty sharp according to the recent scores by both teams.

[/ QUOTE ]
It may have been a badly perceived edge by me. While Cle & Det have played 2 low-scoring games in Games 3 (163pts) & 4 (146pts), but this was at Cleveland where they knew they had to clamp down on defense to have a chance as that was the spoken theme in the media. When I saw my handicapper posting the recommendation on Over 179, I reviewed how they had played at Detroit in Games 1 (199pts) & 2 (188pts). The line of 179 seemed to be low considering after the Cavs had evened up the series & I figured they could try to open up their offense a bit going back to Detroit.

* CalvinTy

[CalvinTy]

Yesterday 1-3 -2.75 units
YTD 5-8 -4.69 units

5/17 results:

MLB: Phi (G. Floyd) +122 at Mil (D. Bush) 1u/1.22u {L, 7-8}
MLB: Cin (B. Arroyo) -160 at Pit (Ol. Perez) 1.6u/1u {L, 2-7}
MLB: Sea (J. Moyer) at Oak (B. Zito) -150 1.5u/1u {W, 2-7}
NBA: Cle/Det Over 179, -115 1.15u/1u {L, 86-84, 170pts}

If not for Oakland's easy win in the late game yesterday, almost another 0-4 day for my handicapper, lol. Phi's Floyd may have surprised a few people after 5 innings of 1-hit ball, giving up a solo homer in the 1st inning. No matter, he crashed as people expected.

The only good thing out of last night was that I *did* parlay Cincy & Over in Cle/Det in my real account. It saved me more than a unit of betting.

* CalvinTy