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  #1  
Old 05-14-2006, 06:00 PM
CASSHERN CASSHERN is offline
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Location: Montreal
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Default Calling an all in preflop with K9s ?!

In a live 105 players tournament, the blinds are at 1000-2000 (ante 100). The next player elminated will go in 15th place, and 10 places are paid. I have about 24k and a shortstack (~11k) goes all in, I call with QQ and lose to A7s. So, I'm down to approx 13k. I fold the next hand preflop.

The next hand I'm on my BB ...

Everybody folds, except the SB (also a shortstack) who goes all in. He has about 14.5k in chips. I really think that it's a steal : I'm very confident he has nothing. I have K9s ...

I start to count my odds agains his probable hands ;
PP above 9 : Very unlikely
AT+ : " "

PP below 9 : 50-50
K9+ : I'm badly dominated
K2-K9 : I'm way in advance
A8- : 60-40 for him
Hands like Q8 (one middle card + 1 under) : 60-40 for me
2 cards below 9 : 66-33 for me (depending on the cards ...)

So, I roughly estimate my chance at 60-40 of winning the hand. I have the advantage--If my read that he has nothing is good.

However, I'm on the BB. And, there are 7 more hands before I'm BB again ... so I still have some chances of getting some all in cards before it's too late. Even with a hand like A7, if I push all in, I might not have much better odds that 60-40, but at least I'd have folding equity ...

So, given the little advance I have, should I call, or wait for a better opportunity ?
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  #2  
Old 05-14-2006, 06:19 PM
0evg0 0evg0 is offline
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Default Re: Calling an all in preflop with K9s ?!

E-Z call.
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  #3  
Old 05-14-2006, 06:20 PM
0evg0 0evg0 is offline
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Default Re: Calling an all in preflop with K9s ?!

I actually just read the rest of the post.

If you are seriously debating not putting your chips in as a 60/40 favorite, stop playing poker. If you are seriously debating not putting your chips in as a 60/40 favorite when you have 6xbb, hand out your money to strangers on the street.
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