One question about one comment on stoxtrader video:

[captainwan]

$2/$4 Texas Hold'em - Sunday, May 14, 09:18:35 ET 2006
Table Table 96493 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Button( $82.55 )
Seat 2: SB ( $44 )
Seat 3: Hero ( $257.50 )
Seat 5: MP ( $46 )
Seat 6: CO ( $157.50 )
SB posts small blind [$1].
Hero posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ah 7h ]
MP folds.
CO folds.
Button folds.
SB calls [$1].
Hero raises [$2].
SB calls [$2].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 8h, Qc ]
SB checks.
Hero raises [$2].
SB calls [$2].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qs ]
SB checks.
Hero checks.

Comment of stoxtrader:

"Ace high and a flush draw, the pot is small so I am going to check behind because the value I gain by not getting raised and inducing a river bet is worth more than the value I lose giving free cards because the pot is so small."

Is there a way to explain this with maths?

[stoxtrader]

I wrote an article about a similar concept in one of the internet magazines, not sure if it is still posted. It was entitled "The turn value check".

The math gets a bit complicated because you have to make a few assumptions about how your opponent acts and that involves a decent amount of guesswork. Specifically how often he will bluff the river after a turn check, or how often he would bluff check-raise the turn with various holdings.

[dietlime]

It was in Jan 2006 and is no longer available.

[captainwan]

Thanks, I googled "The Turn Value Check" and found the article.

[ShakeZula06]

I googled it also but it said I was forbidden to see it [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[dietlime]

oh yeah here it is

[ShakeZula06]

just watched the video after reading the article. It was very useful to me especially considering I play those limits, thanks a lot!


Also, to the OP, where did you get the hand history?

[captainwan]

I don't have the HH. I recorded my PC screen watching the video and went from that to build the history of this hand.

[Carmine]

I am having trouble understanding the math in the paragraph below from that article. Can anyone elaborate.

Although giving free cards is a concern in this situation, against the right opponent the benefits gained from a turn check outweigh the cost of a free card. Even if your opponent has 6 outs, you are giving him a 12.5% (=1/8) chance to beat you at no cost to him. Most heads-up pots will be 4BB on the turn; thus giving a free card to an opponent with 6 outs costs 1/2 of a BB (4BB 1/8). If you induce a bluff approximately 57% of the time when your opponent does not catch up (this number includes the times he does catch up and you lose the existing pot plus an extra bet on the river), checking the turn is a break-even proposition. Most opponents will not bluff the river 57% of the time (but some will even more). However, when you add the value gained from avoiding being check-raised when behind and from avoiding laying down the best hand to a check-raise bluff or semi-bluff to the times you were behind but benefited from the free card, it becomes clear that checking the turn can be correct against aggressive opponents.

[ImsaKidd]

OT: Am I the still the only one that cant watch this video??