2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?

gomerpyledc · #1 12-27-2005, 01:35 PM

Hey guys, title of the post says it all. I'm thinking of moving out to Vegas in the next few months and I was wondering if the 2-5NL games are beatable for enough to make a living. My monthly nut is around $2000, and I know that the swings can be enormous even at these stakes. Will 50 buy-ins ($10k) be enough to withstand the variance? Thanks a million.

FatalError · #2 12-27-2005, 01:48 PM

what are your monthly expenses, not bare but with your standard of living. If you play somewhere like wynn all day and get all your meals comped by tipping floormen well then maybe you can do it... but life won't be glamorous

wilsonkop · #3 12-27-2005, 02:01 PM

Since your nut is $2K per month, you should have at least $12K (6 months of living expenses) in reserve in additon to your playing BR. Sounds like you need about $25K on hand for a reaosnable shot at being successful. Of course there are variables including how good you are at poker. Good luck.

wrschultz · #4 12-27-2005, 02:03 PM

I think it could be done if you are a decent player, and if you can find a cheap place to live, but I would only do it with the intention of moving up in limits as soon as you felt comfortable... I think I would probably have at least 100 buy ins as a bankroll and also enough money to pay my rent for at least 6 months if I never made a dime. Good luck.

Riverman · #5 12-27-2005, 02:23 PM

Yes as long as you are disiplined (most people arent) with your gome selection and spending habits. The problem is you will have a lot of cash on you in a casino all the time, so its easy to blow money. Good Luck

spino1i · #6 12-27-2005, 02:26 PM

I think it can easily be done. The 2/5 NL games there are so soft its a joke. I would have a BR of at least 10 grand to start with if you wanted to do it for a living though.

Larry David · #7 12-27-2005, 02:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes as long as you are disiplined (most people arent) with your gome selection and spending habits. The problem is you will have a lot of cash on you in a casino all the time, so its easy to blow money. Good Luck

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, do not learn how to play craps.

Percula · #8 12-27-2005, 02:48 PM

Based on my limited experience with 2/5 at the Wynn (3 sessions) you should be able to do it easily with a solid game with good game selection.

You should have a few months of living expenses tucked away in addition to your BR. Trust me downswings can last months.

Also do not limit yourself to only 2/5 NL games. If there is a rocking 15/30 LHE game and your 2/5 sucks, move!

highlife · #9 12-27-2005, 03:14 PM

please provide evidence of your winrate either online or live and we can give you a better answer.

50 buyins is a good start, but add at least 3 months living expenses to that.

ramblinman · #10 12-27-2005, 08:05 PM

First of all your monthly "nut" as you call it will not be 2K in Vegas. A decent apt. is going to cost you half of that at least! Since you will be playing poker 8 to 12 hours a day, four or more days a week, you will be eating out a lot. You can of course get some comp benefits from the rooms where you play, however, keep in mind that not only are most places starting to tighen up on comps but it takes a lot of poker action to get any really decent comps out of a large room. Chances are you will be eating a lot of buffet food if you expect to live on 2K and comps.

Next, you need to figure on $20/day in gratuities (mimimum). 20 days out of the month, that's another $400 you need to clear. You may have seen or heard much debate about the need to tip or not tip but I assure you that if you plan to hang at the Wynn or Bellagio or the Mirage and think you can get away without tipping the cocktail waitress, the dealer, the brush (or cardroom manager) as well as a myriad of other "service personnel" then you are in for a rough time.

So let's do the math and see what it will really take...

Let's say you actually need $3000/month, not $2000. (probably a conservative figure) Divide that by 20 days and you only need to clear $150/day every single day that you play in order to achieve your monetary goal.

Assuming you can average a 40% rate of winning sessions (this is the figure Annie Duke told me that she was averaging after years of cash game play) that means you will actually leave the game ahead 8 out of 20 sessions.

This leaves you needing to average $375/session to earn your $3000 "nut". (and that buffet food isn't tasting so good after a couple of months).

Keep in mind that you also need to win enough during your winning sessions to recover your losses during your 12 loosing sessions or your bankroll will begin to shrink.

Playing any NL or PL game the variance will be much greater so your won/loss swings will be larger than if you were playing LHE. (one of the math genuises on this forum can help you work out the numbers).

At any rate, I'm sure you are beginning to catch my drift. While it can be done, you are probably pushing the limits of probability by expecting to win enough money playing NL or PL games for relatively small blinds/ buy-ins. Probably would be better served to fortify your BR, hone up on your LHE game and try to grind out one big blind per hour at the 20/40 tables.

That way you could keep your play down to 30 hours per week or so ($1200/week, not too shabby), keep your mind fresh and be able to have the time and money to eat somewhere besides the buffet line at the Imperial Palace.