I need help/encouragement (graph/stats) {x-post}

[Schwatt]

X-posted from BBV: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=0#Post5726616

but I want HELP in fixing what is glaringly wrong, not sympathy for my downswing.

Here is what I have gone through in the last few months:

My last 100k hands:


The first 50k:


The last 50k:


I am so frustrated with the amount of 2-6 outers that are hitting on me, as well as my own aggressively played draws not coming in. I am sick of being check-raised on the flop/turn when my overs miss. I am sick of fish calling to the river with bottom pair and making 2 pair/trips on the river. I am sick of hitting sets only about 1/20 with my small pairs and then having them beaten by a str8/flush.
My OESD and flush draws never hit in big multiway pots. My big pairs are winning very tiny pots preflop or on the flop. When I get action on them, they get busted.

I understand I ran a little hot at the beginning of the 50k stretch, but the correction is a little rediculous. My table selection is good at the very least. I dont play at tables with only 1 or 2 donators unless I have position on them.

I know I can beat these limits, and am confident I can beat 10/20 in the limited action I have seen there. I have played some 2/4-5/10 6-max (app 3k hands) and feel I have a pretty good grasp for it. I choose to play full ring to decrease the variance(yeah right).

Does anyone have any insight?

(edited to add link to BBV x-post)

[uDevil]

It looks like you started defending [your big blind] a lot more. You also increased your blind steal attempts. These things might be good, unless you play badly.

Compare your winrate in the big blind over the same time periods. Also look at how your blind steal success has changed. If the numbers jump out at you, maybe you should consider playing some short-handed games at the lower stakes for a while.

Also, just out of curiosity, did your standard deviation change across the two periods?

[Schwatt]

I really appreciate the help UUDevil. Here are my findings from your suggestions.

SD:
First 50k- 15.41 BB/100
Last 50k- 14.06 BB/100
(I'm not sure what this means)


BB winrate:
First 50k- (0.21)
Last 50k- (0.27)

Steal success: No flop/ fold% / Ww/oSD /WSD% / W$SD%
first 50k- 28.60 / 22.40 / 52.46 / 25.14/ 54.35
Last 50k- 33.44 / 23.92 / 53.07 / 22.12/ 53.11

BB Defense: Fold% / Ww/oSD / WSD% / W$SD%
First 50k- 57.05 / 14.74 / 28.21/ 54.55
Last 50k- 50.78 / 18.50 / 30.72/ 59.18

Looking at what you recommended, my thought is that I'm not taking marginal hands to showdown in defense of my blind enough in the last 50k, hence the high W$SD%.

Also, it seems my own steal attempts are being called much more regularly in the last 50k, so maybe I should be more selective WHO I try to steal from, and what hands I do so with.

Is that your conclusion also?
Again, thanks for the help.

[ace_in_the_hole]

VARIANCE.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
SD:
First 50k- 15.41 BB/100
Last 50k- 14.06 BB/100
(I'm not sure what this means)

[/ QUOTE ]

A typical value is ~16. A decrease in this number is consistent with running bad. (pzhon was the first I saw point this out.) You are putting less money in the pot because you think (correctly or not) you are too far behind.

[ QUOTE ]
BB winrate:
First 50k- (0.21)
Last 50k- (0.27)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch. A typical number is more like -.18 BB/hand. The difference is costing you ~.8 BB/100 hands in overall WR. Variance should be greater in the blinds, so you may just be running bad-- nothing you can do about that. Or you might be playing badly-- that you can do something about.

[ QUOTE ]

Looking at what you recommended, my thought is that I'm not taking marginal hands to showdown in defense of my blind enough in the last 50k, hence the high W$SD%.

Also, it seems my own steal attempts are being called much more regularly in the last 50k, so maybe I should be more selective WHO I try to steal from, and what hands I do so with.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right, but there are many ways to end up with the same numbers. I'm no expert. I'm working on my own blind play by trying to learn SH play.

[WasItMe]

[ QUOTE ]
VARIANCE.

[/ QUOTE ]

[kazana]

erm... sorry about the completely unrelated question:
with which program are you creating these graphs?

[Webster]

Looks like Poker Grapher - I think it's still free ware

[chief444]

I wouldn't assume it's variance or a "downswing" actually. You're beating 2/4 for a bit more than 1.5/100. Fine. But that's the majority of the BB's you've won. It's also the majority of the first 50k with 5/10 and even a little 10/20 being more of the last 50k. You may just be about a breakeven player right now at the next limits up. 50k doesn't tell much. You're stats look ok. The second half look a bit better than the first. But then preflop is pretty easy. You're making an assumption that you're a winning player at the 5/10+ level but there's a good possibility that you're not there yet. Try to forget the charts and preflop stats and work on your game.

[Schwatt]

Again thanks guys for the help.

uuDevil and chief444: I am going to play more SH to help my play/decision making in marginal situations. For now, in Full ring, I think I'll tighten up more from the blinds and in steal attempts until I feel I have addressed these issues while playing SH.

[ QUOTE ]
erm... sorry about the completely unrelated question:
with which program are you creating these graphs?

[/ QUOTE ]


Poker Patterns. (I was having problems with PokerGrapher)