Nice read or nice skirt?

jba · #1 05-03-2006, 12:02 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (6.66 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

edit: oh yeah, villain is a reasonable and somewhat tight TAG, like 22/17 type.

Delphin · #2 05-03-2006, 12:30 PM

I don't know of a hand that a TAG is going to call you with that you beat. NH

raze · #3 05-03-2006, 01:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know of a hand that a TAG is going to call you with that you beat. NH

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? AQ.. maybe even AJ?

edit: mmm.. no, you're right. River value bet no good

Sandberg · #4 05-03-2006, 01:42 PM

Value Bet! He's calling this river with AQ. That is a very likely holding. I'd probably fold to a check/raise though.

___ · #5 05-03-2006, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Value Bet! He's calling this river with AQ. That is a very likely holding. I'd probably fold to a check/raise though.

[/ QUOTE ]
What does AQ think you are holding? 88-77? If villain really is a thinking player this is a definite check.

If you do bet there is no probably in folding to the check/raise.

Kangar · #6 05-03-2006, 01:58 PM

check, a reasonable tag, who probably has some sort of stats on you and hence knowing you arent crazy, will not payoff with AQ here which is what you are hoping he has if you bet.

silkyslim · #7 05-03-2006, 02:03 PM

what hands does he make on the river?? i still think he has a Q and will call u down.

Delphin · #8 05-03-2006, 02:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Value Bet! He's calling this river with AQ. That is a very likely holding. I'd probably fold to a check/raise though.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he calls the river with AQ, I don't think he's "a reasonable and somewhat tight TAG". With that description I'd be worried he's check calling two pair b/c he's afraid of the straight. I think he folds AQ, AJ, or the spade draw he's got here if you're ahead and you bet.

If he calls, you are going to see two pair, a straight, or you're chopping. I'm guessing you are not chopping the way he shut down on the turn. I'm too weak on the river in general, but this is not even close to a comfortable value bet IMO.

jba · #9 05-03-2006, 02:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what hands does he make on the river?? i still think he has a Q and will call u down.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok I actually think he's going to call 100% of the time with AQ -- he shouldn't because he's never ever ever good, but I don't get the impression that the tags in this game will realize that. so i think I get value from AQ, but we need to be good >50% of the time to bet here and there seem to be soo many hands that beat me (QJ/QT/JJ/TT/KJ?).

that said the reason I second guess this hand is because of the retardedness of his turn call.. but I can't imagine he would have called a river bet with his holding.

Kangar · #10 05-03-2006, 02:18 PM

The ONLY hand you get value here (if at all) from a reasonable UTG raising range is AQ. All of the hands that you listed (QJ/QT/JJ/TT/KJ) that beat you are quite legitimate in calling the turn, thus a river bet would be not be good at all.