Clemens Signing Prop

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From Sportsbook.com:

Clemens goes to:

Nobody (retires) 1-1
Houston 3-2
New York 2-1
Boston 9-2
Other 5-1
Texas 10-1

I really think this is a three horse race, and I don’t believe retirement is one of the options. The Hendricks Brothers wouldn’t have leaked the $3 mil per month figure if he was even thinking about not playing this year. I heard Houston will live with that number today also, so I believe that takes retirement out of play. I’m also ruling out Texas (not remotely in contention to win it all) and other. This brings us to Houston/New York/Boston. My breakdown of those three would be:

Houston 40%
Boston 30%
New York 30%

This is pretty arbitrary, but Boston could be a value play here. I put a max $200 on it last night to win $900. I think the sappy video that the Sox front office made for him went over well, and I heard that Mrs Clemens is in favor of the Boston move. I’ve heard Buster Olney and Peter Gammons weigh in on this, and they seem to believe Boston is a serious contender in this. Al Nipper is the pitching coach and he and Roger are still good friends. Roger is tied with Cy Young on the all-time Red Sox win list and could own that record as well as get his number retired by the Sox if he returns. I think those are important things for Roger. Not as important as the cash though, and I think the Sox will commit to match whatever Houston or NY offer. This would be a major public opinion score for a front office that has been badly burned by NY a few times in recent years on such things (Damon, Contreras, A-Rod). While they haven’t broken the bank in those cases, I think the Sox do it here due to the lack of long term commitment associated with it.

Anyway, just my opinion, but wanted to share it as I think 9-2 is great value.

[HSB]

Personally, I hope he dies.

And I hope it hurts.

On a more substantive note:

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This would be a major public opinion score for a front office that has been badly burned by NY a few times in recent years on such things (Damon, Contreras, A-Rod).

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I think you need to re-evaluate your definition of "badly burned."

With full 20/20 hindsight, the only ones burned by Contreras were the Yankees. The Sox have more than adequately replaced Damon for less money. A-Rod is at least arguable.

Meanwhile the Sox have burned back with the Schilling and Becket acquisitions. I'm sure the yanks would have loved either or both of them.

None of which is to suggest that I don't think Boston is a good value here. I personally suspect it's 99% Houston and 1% everyone else but I am in a distinct minority there.

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Fair point, and I worded that poorly.

My point was that with both Damon and A-Rod, Steinbrenner got to rub the Sox choice to be fiscally conservative back in their face with public comments about doing whatever it takes to win. The A-Rod one is debatable, but no question in my mind the Sox took the right direction with Damon vs Crisp.

My bigger point is this. The Red Sox place a much greater value on future payroll flexibility than do the Yankees. This will almost always hinder their ability to compete with NY for the same free agents. In a unique case like this where the guy is looking for a 3-4 month contract, this shouldn't be an issue.

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Bumping to see if anyone that lives in other parts of the country has heard anything on this. I am thinking about hedging with a play on Houston at 3-2. The good news for my Boston play is that Houston is falling out of it, but the general concensus I keep hearing is that the Astros have the inside track on him.

Anyone think staying retired is a real option for Roger right now?

[B00T]

Living in NY I can give the insight here. Clemens will not go to Boston. There are talks someone close to him said he would not do that to the Yankees (he loves Steinbrenner and the fact he won his championships here) and have to compete at Yankee Stadium come pennant race or playoff time in a road jersey.

I would put the chances of Clemens going to Boston at 100-1 with 40% he is retiring, 40% he goes to the Astros and 19% he goes to the Yankees.

[Rick305]

0% chance he goes to bosten.

1/2 he ends up in houston

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From Peter Gammons this morning:

"The Astros once thought that he was definitely coming back to Houston; now they are not so sure."

Another rumor making the rounds yesterday was that Roger has narrowed it down to Houston or Boston.

Maybe I'm just getting my hopes up needlessly, but I'm pretty happy to have 9-2 odds right now.

[primetime32]

gammons is the king of misinformation. The man spews hundreds of BS rumors and maybe 1 out of a hundred pan out. The fact that gammons says clemens may go to boston insures in my mind that he won't.

[daPlayboy]

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gammons is the king of misinformation. The man spews hundreds of BS rumors and maybe 1 out of a hundred pan out. The fact that gammons says clemens may go to boston insures in my mind that he won't.

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LOL