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#11
11-08-2006, 05:50 PM
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Re: Postponing a raise to the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Raise that flop up. Condition 1 and 2 don't apply here. [/ QUOTE ] I was in doubt about condition 1 but I dont understand why condition 2 doesn't apply here. Do you think my equity edge is too big? [/ QUOTE ] Give your opponent a reasonable hand-range here, what is your equity against this range? 
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#12
11-08-2006, 06:09 PM
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Re: Postponing a raise to the turn
[ QUOTE ]
I planned to raise only when the turn comes T or lower and I have 2 opponents here. It's not only "him". [/ QUOTE ] In this particular hand, we really should be looking at it different. We want to raise here to protect our hand against those cards that you fear on the turn. There are a lot of them that might slow us down or lose us the pot. So we raise to: Make them more likely to fold. Overcards are correct in calling the one bet, but not the two. If they still want to call two, we've done our job in making it a -EV play for them, even if the next card is murder. As far as our pot equity, it doesnt' change unless the amount of players drop, but our chances or winning the hand AND our equity increase if even one person folds. Flop equity 5 players divided by 1 pot = 20%. One player folds = 4/1 = 25% Two players fold = 3/1 = 33% Plus, that turn K looks a lot less scary, the fewer players around to catch it, thus the increase in winning the hand. What was once their outs, become our outs, at least partially.
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#13
11-08-2006, 06:26 PM
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Re: Postponing a raise to the turn
If I remember right, wasn't the pot in the SSHE example quite large on the flop? I'd say others hit the nail on the head of why to raise this flop.
[ QUOTE ] Can anyone construct an example (without overpairs, of course) for this concept? That could help me and others a lot. [/ QUOTE ] Keeping you with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I think a better example would be if the preflop action went UTG limp, CO limp, Hero limps, SB completes, BB raises and all call. Flop of T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB checks, BB bets, UTG and CO call, action on Hero. At this point, if you raise, you can face SB with 2 cold, but everyone else is calling your raise, or BB 3bets and there is still a reasonable chance everyone calls that too. Someone holding 2 clubs isn't folding, someone holding QJ, J8, or 87 isn't folding, KQ or KJ with overs and a gutshot isn't folding and if someone got stubborn with a lone king or queen and called 1 bet, they are probably calling another one and maybe two. In this case, I would see a turn raise being better since you can see if something you don't like (K, Q, J, 8, club) falling on the turn, not to mention you have position, so if there is a BB bet and a raise on a scare card from a passive player, folding wouldn't look so bad.
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#14
11-08-2006, 06:36 PM
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Re: Postponing a raise to the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Give your opponent a reasonable hand-range here, what is your equity against this range? [/ QUOTE ] It's not easy to give them a hand range at this level. In fact it turned out that they had the wrong cards. CO had nothing but SB was strong with AJ. However, CO should have two cards 10+, SB can have anything. I think I understand what you mean though. Since I have an A I must only fear J, Q and K. When I assume that one holds JQ and the other a K I have only 9 outs against me. That means that there is only a 40% danger that one of these cards will occur on turn or river. My hand is much stronger than the TT overpair in the SSH example. Thanks a lot!
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#15
11-08-2006, 06:50 PM
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Re: Postponing a raise to the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Give your opponent a reasonable hand-range here, what is your equity against this range? [/ QUOTE ] It's not easy to give them a hand range at this level. In fact it turned out that they had the wrong cards. CO had nothing but SB was strong with AJ. [/ QUOTE ] Strong? You have him dominated.
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#16
11-08-2006, 07:03 PM
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Re: Postponing a raise to the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Give your opponent a reasonable hand-range here, what is your equity against this range? [/ QUOTE ] It's not easy to give them a hand range at this level. In fact it turned out that they had the wrong cards. CO had nothing but SB was strong with AJ. [/ QUOTE ] Strong? You have him dominated. [/ QUOTE ] He means strong PF. But it's a perfect example of a hand you'd love to fold out on the flop!
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#17
11-08-2006, 10:16 PM
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Re: Postponing a raise to the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Give your opponent a reasonable hand-range here, what is your equity against this range? [/ QUOTE ] It's not easy to give them a hand range at this level. In fact it turned out that they had the wrong cards. CO had nothing but SB was strong with AJ. [/ QUOTE ] Strong? You have him dominated. [/ QUOTE ] He means strong PF. But it's a perfect example of a hand you'd love to fold out on the flop! [/ QUOTE ] Why in the world do we want AJ to flop on the flop?
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#18
11-09-2006, 02:27 AM
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Re: Postponing a raise to the turn
[ QUOTE ]
If I remember right, wasn't the pot in the SSHE example quite large on the flop? I'd say others hit the nail on the head of why to raise this flop. [/ QUOTE ] It's true that the pot is big in the SSHE example. IMO that's because they chose big pocket pairs to illustrate the concept and these are assumed to raise preflop. It's not a necessary precondition for applying the concept.
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#19
11-09-2006, 02:56 AM
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Re: Postponing a raise to the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Give your opponent a reasonable hand-range here, what is your equity against this range? [/ QUOTE ] It's not easy to give them a hand range at this level. In fact it turned out that they had the wrong cards. CO had nothing but SB was strong with AJ. [/ QUOTE ] Strong? You have him dominated. [/ QUOTE ] He means strong PF. But it's a perfect example of a hand you'd love to fold out on the flop! [/ QUOTE ] Why in the world do we want AJ to flop on the flop? [/ QUOTE ] Erm, because if he rivers his J, he takes the pot and we don't? River: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7BB, 3 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls. Thar she blows.
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#20
11-09-2006, 07:22 AM
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Re: Postponing a raise to the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If I remember right, wasn't the pot in the SSHE example quite large on the flop? I'd say others hit the nail on the head of why to raise this flop. [/ QUOTE ] It's true that the pot is big in the SSHE example. IMO that's because they chose big pocket pairs to illustrate the concept and these are assumed to raise preflop. It's not a necessary precondition for applying the concept. [/ QUOTE ] But doesn't it apply best when your hand cannot be protected, i.e. when the pot is large? In any case, while I have taken into account replies above, I'm not sure that your edge has grown *sufficiently* from the flop to the turn to justify a bet at one stage but not the other. I think you were 1) ahead on the flop and 2) in a position to protect on the flop and thus should have raised to protect and for value. I take your point earlier in the thread about not being scared off by a single overcard - I happily accept that now. But still, this, for me, is a flop raise.
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