LimCash: Big hand but more bets?

Leader · #1 05-17-2007, 01:34 AM

Villain seems decent and agro. I haven't done anything insane.

Ultimate Bet 5/10 Hold'em (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

River: (14 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero

vmacosta · #2 05-17-2007, 01:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain seems decent and agro. I haven't done anything insane.

Ultimate Bet 5/10 Hold'em (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

River: (14 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero

[/ QUOTE ]

Leader,
It's close but I think you should put in one more raise here and call a 3-bet. There are just too many hand I'd put in the discounted portion of his range: 33, 55, 98, KK-QQ, Ah9h, other tilty stuff. I don't really see him folding anything to your raise except tilty bluffs either.

danzasmack · #3 05-17-2007, 10:18 AM

i would probably c/r the river.

2461Badugi · #4 05-17-2007, 10:42 AM

I would lead this river and call a raise. I don't really want three bets to go in by default, although depending on the flow of the match I might be happy to put in four. In which case I'd still lead.

danzasmack · #5 05-17-2007, 10:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would lead this river and call a raise. I don't really want three bets to go in by default, although depending on the flow of the match I might be happy to put in four. In which case I'd still lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think 3-bets goes in less often than we think. Leading this river stops him from value betting hands like TT-KK. Plus it gets less value from lower sets/2pairs.

2461Badugi · #6 05-17-2007, 10:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would lead this river and call a raise. I don't really want three bets to go in by default, although depending on the flow of the match I might be happy to put in four. In which case I'd still lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think 3-bets goes in less often than we think. Leading this river stops him from value betting hands like TT-KK. Plus it gets less value from lower sets/2pairs.

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I don't think there's any chance 33, 55, or a rivered two pair aren't raising us again. But I think the ace river plus all the action we've put in makes it really unlikely we're getting more than one bet out of a previous two pair or TT-KK, and we may get none. He'd have to be really daft to bet-call those.

We may get an extra bet out of a combo draw by checking, but I think a lot of one pair and bad two pair hands will be happy to either take a free showdown or give it up for a value bet-fold.

danzasmack · #7 05-17-2007, 10:55 AM

"I don't think there's any chance 33, 55, or a rivered two pair aren't raising us again. "

I know that but they are always value betting so there is no risk in value from a c/r from there and plus you get 3-bets from 33-55 and A9 a lot.

2461Badugi · #8 05-17-2007, 11:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
"I don't think there's any chance 33, 55, or a rivered two pair aren't raising us again. "

I know that but they are always value betting so there is no risk in value from a c/r from there and plus you get 3-bets from 33-55 and A9 a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think A9 will threebet a checkraise here. So you get threebet by 33, 55, 99, AA and the nuts, which makes it pretty much a wash since he won't have the nuts very often. If you figure those same hands will fourbet you, there's value in bet-threeing, since you should get three out of A8/A9 that way.

Leader · #9 05-17-2007, 06:52 PM

Little analysis:
<table border="1" style="text-align:center; float: left;"><tr><td>Hand</td><td>Combos</td><td>Discounted for</td><td>EV c/r</td><td>EV c/c</td></tr><tr><td>AA</td><td>3</td><td>-</td><td>-3</td><td>-1</td></tr><tr><td>KK</td><td>5</td><td>Turn cap</td><td>1.75</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>QQ</td><td>3</td><td>Turn cap</td><td>1.70</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>JJ</td><td>1</td><td>Turn cap</td><td>1.6</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>TT</td><td>1</td><td>Turn cap</td><td>1.4</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>99</td><td>3</td><td>-</td><td>-2.9</td><td>-1</td></tr><tr><td>55</td><td>2.5</td><td>pf cap</td><td>2.5</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>33</td><td>1</td><td>pf cap and flop call</td><td>2.25</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>98</td><td>1</td><td>pf cap</td><td>2</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>76</td><td>2</td><td>pf cap</td><td>-3</td><td>-1</td></tr><tr><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>[b]Totals</td><td>.12</td><td>.37</td></tr></table>

I don't think this guy has Ah9h here. That wouldn't make the difference in any case. You may disagree with the discounting of EV for KK-TT for him folding the river but changing them all upward increases the EV to only .22. Even if we assume he always 3-bets sets as well, we're only to .29.

vmacosta · #10 05-17-2007, 07:22 PM

I think you botched TT-AA and probably even 76 there, but I get your point.