Live 20/40 Gar vs. Pro Part 3

[Garland]

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And I don't really see what is so nice about having position in this scenario.

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You are getting him to make a correct a fold, or, when has a club, a correct call that puts you in a terrible spot bc you have no information.

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My information when CO just calls my check-raise is that I am exactly ahead of CO, and probably ahead of at least BB as I expect that LAG to check-raise any A. I can get Pro to make a correct fold? How about an incorrect call as well? I don't mind eliminating one of the players and taking position. When there's a big pot, many opponents, and I think I'm ahead, I'm trying to shoot them down like ducks in a shooting gallery.

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Why on earth do you not believe they have you beaten?

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As mentioned, I did not hear from them after CO's bet (sorry for the mistake on the other post), and I didn't hear from SB or BB after I check-raised either.

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Not to mention laggy steaming BB who might decide to 3b a draw or worse, and then what are you doing?

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Laggy was not sophisticated enough to 3-bet with a draw. And besides, I don't bet and raise my hands with a fear of getting raised or re-raised. I consider getting raised and 3-bet more information to deal with. If I get re-raised by CO, I'm toast...easy fold. No guessing games on the turn. If I get 3-bet by a blind, I have to re-evaluate. Considering the board and what I and Pro are representing, I'm pretty sure I'd be toast then too.

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ROFLOL... A loose player and a LAG on a coordinated board?

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I'm almost positive I got SB off of a K, and he probably had enough equity to draw to the river.

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Unless you had some live instinct read (and by your own admission your live instincts are prone to error), you have no evidence for thinking this.

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I was actually kidding. Pro has a habit of looking at cards in turn, so no way of seeing the 3-bet coming. The others, did look early so I could sense them. I think I actually have a fairly good read on my opponents. Not "Antonio Esfandiari" good, but very, very good none-the-less. Yes, I was fairly certain no one had an A but me, but on the river, I didn't think I would get called by worse ever.

Thank you very much for your thoughts. I do appreciate them and they do cause me to think deeper, but I still think check-raising the flop is the right move here.

Garland

[mongidig]

I like your thoughts regarding the flop check-raise, however, I don't think this is a good spot for it.

1) There is too much money in the pot. Players holding an Ace are going to call down even if they think theyre beat. Players with weak draws are going to call down because they have the odds to do so.

2) There are one too many players involved. Take away one player and I think you would have a better shot. Too many things have to go right for you to win against 3 players.

3) Make this a rainbow board and your play looks scary, but in this situation it looks a lot like your jamming a flush draw. The pro is probably thinking you don't have AA or KK since you didn't cap preflop, or AK for that matter. Since the pot is big and he has picked up a gutshot on the turn the pro is correct to think that he may have the best hand and if not, then he has a redraw to the best hand. His real fear is that you have A7 or 77(Does he think you would bet out with two pair or a set here?) I think it is also hard for him to put you on just an Ace since check-raising this flop would be a not so standard way of playing it.

[Garland]

Hi mongidig,

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1) There is too much money in the pot. Players holding an Ace are going to call down even if they think theyre beat. Players with weak draws are going to call down because they have the odds to do so.

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As I mentioned, once CO bet and SB and BB just called, I expected to have the winner well over 90% if I can find out CO doesn't have me beaten. In addition there are scenarios where opponents have whined "I would have won on the river," because they would have hit their kicker on the river (after they folded on the turn) and my pre-flop/flop action made them fear that I had a set or two pair rather than just one pair.

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2) There are one too many players involved. Take away one player and I think you would have a better shot. Too many things have to go right for you to win against 3 players.

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My top pair no-kicker is a winner once CO just called. It needs to hold up, and I want to knock off opponents if at all possible. In a big pot, shooting for fewer opponents with a vulnerable winner is a good objective. In essence, I'm charging everyone an extra bet to catch up to me.

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Make this a rainbow board and your play looks scary, but in this situation it looks a lot like your jamming a flush draw.

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No! The first thought that should be going through my opponents' heads is that I hit my Ace. The second thought is "does he have AK"? (Note BB's turn non-raise. Why do you think he didn't check-raise me when he made two pair?) Jamming a flush draw should be furthest from their minds. It might creep up in the head of a 2+2 player, but not the average player.

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I think it is also hard for him to put you on just an Ace since check-raising this flop would be a not so standard way of playing it.

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Actually, check-raising top pair is totally a standard way of playing it. Lots of people do it around these parts. I agree with some sentiments: heads up, I play way ahead/way behind scenario, but with multiple opponents, I'm fighting for the pot. Not idly check-calling behind and playing guessing games on the turn. If I check-called the flop, I would have killed myself if the turn checked through.

Thanks for your thoughts!

Garland

[yellowjack]

Hi Garland,

I'm another poster (although I don't post much) that disagrees with the flop c/r. The part in which our thoughts differ is the probability that you have the best hand with A3o. I would put it at less than 50%.

CO could opt to better protect his hand by just calling the flop c/r and raising the turn, giving the players behind you only 5:1, rather than something like 8:1 on the flop. A hand he might do this with is AQ/AJ, which makes up more combinations than AA/KK. We can fold safely to a turn raise, but given we could take a cheaper line in a flop c/c and turn donk, I like that more. Again, the major thought difference is the probability we're behind. I don't think we are most of the time, so my line lets us get away cheaply.

A reason you noted for check-raising the flop is that lots of people do it; that is not a good reason for doing it. IMO, tons of live players have leaks that they never figure out. This is because they have the more subtle leaks that a lot of players don't realize.

With multiple opponents in the pot, I agree that you do want to fight for it. However, you do nothing to help yourself win the pot when the player on your immediate left bets and you c/r: you only bloat the pot. In this hand, I don't think there is much you can do to protect your hand. If you check-call the flop and donk the turn, folding is necessary if he raises. If he just calls, he doesn't protect your hand for you.

[Garland]

Hi yellowjacket,

First thanks for taking the time to write. Let me highlight some of your points and my thoughts to them.

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The part in which our thoughts differ is the probability that you have the best hand with A3o. I would put it at less than 50%.

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Ok, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. I did mention 90%+ if I knew CO just calls, right? I agree with less than 50% if we don't know CO's action.

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CO could opt to better protect his hand by just calling the flop c/r and raising the turn, giving the players behind you only 5:1, rather than something like 8:1 on the flop.

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There are a couple of things to think of:

(1) Any [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is certainly a scare card, and any Q, J or T completing broadway is a pseudo-scare card. It's a lot of cards to dodge in an effort to hold your breath until the turn to pop the opposition. I couldn't envision CO Pro not 3-betting with AK, AA, KK, AQ, et al. It doesn't mean I couldn't be wrong, but I just had that read.

(2) If I happened to be jamming my draw, which is conceivable, I would not bet the turn unimproved.

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but given we could take a cheaper line in a flop c/c and turn donk, I like that more.

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It's certainly a line to consider.

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A reason you noted for check-raising the flop is that lots of people do it; that is not a good reason for doing it. IMO, tons of live players have leaks that they never figure out. This is because they have the more subtle leaks that a lot of players don't realize.

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Actually, I didn't mean that it was right for me to check-raise because "lots of people do it". I said it was "standard" around these parts (and that's why my opponents can easily put me on an Ace), which I guess is confusing because "standard" has come to mean "2+2 seal of approval correct". So I'm sorry about the ambiguity. The reason I check-raised is because I believed I was ahead (and thought CO Pro would tell me otherwise), and I was raising for value. But again, if we disagree with how often we are actually ahead, we are at an impasse.

Thanks again for your thoughts, yellowjacket. Some well thought out ideas. I still like my flop check-raise more now, but I am considering a check-call, turn donk line a bit more now.

Garland