*** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29

chev9 · #1 10-23-2006, 01:16 PM

Pinny: Celtics over 36.5 -109
Sportsbook: Celtics Under 37 +110

Edit: This is total season wins

kaboshedx · #2 10-23-2006, 01:25 PM

Newbie to arbs - so if the Celtics score exactly 37 this means push on Sportsbook and big $$$ at Pinny?

thanks.

silentbob · #3 10-23-2006, 01:26 PM

Yes, sir.

Is this number of wins for the Celtics in the regular season? If so, I dunno how much of my money I'd tie up for the next 6 months for an arb.

kaboshedx · #4 10-23-2006, 01:29 PM

Didn't look close at it, must be number of wins. Has to be
-EV to tie up the money for the season, no?

B00T · #5 10-23-2006, 01:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't look close at it, must be number of wins. Has to be
-EV to tie up the money for the season, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

Homer · #6 10-23-2006, 01:46 PM

Not to mention I wouldn't be too comfortable betting long-term futures at sportsbook. The Celtics could have 12 wins with 1 game left in the season and they could 'no-action' all futures bets.

chev9 · #7 10-23-2006, 02:12 PM

Maybe I'm naive, but after 5 plus years of good experiences on sportsbook, I am not worried about them. Anyway, I can understand some people's hesitation.

General question, what would you consider true odds to be of any basketball team hitting such a number exactly? I'm picturing somewhere between 5% and 8% in my mind.

I haven't looked at all of them closely yet, but I assume there will be more of these available. I looked at the Celts because I actually really like their over, so I ended up putting more on that side of this.

A buddy of mine found 5 of these types of middles and half-middles at the start of the baseball season, and I was surprised how close they were. Three of them were in play on the final weekend, and one hit (KC), so he had a decent return for the season. Could just be variance, but I think more often than not teams are in the vicinity of their expected numbers.

Thremp · #8 10-23-2006, 02:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't look close at it, must be number of wins. Has to be
-EV to tie up the money for the season, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is not -EV FFS. It's not "optimal", but not -EV.

kaboshedx · #9 10-23-2006, 03:17 PM

right, read your rant.

whitepotatoe · #10 10-23-2006, 03:35 PM

You can be paid your skansky dollars in a lump sum at the end of the season or in monthly installments over the course of the season, so of course it's +EV.