*** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29
 

Pinny: Celtics over 36.5 -109
Sportsbook: Celtics Under 37 +110

Edit: This is total season wins

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29
 

Newbie to arbs - so if the Celtics score exactly 37 this means push on Sportsbook and big $$$ at Pinny?

thanks.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29
 

Yes, sir.

Is this number of wins for the Celtics in the regular season? If so, I dunno how much of my money I'd tie up for the next 6 months for an arb.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29
 

Didn't look close at it, must be number of wins. Has to be
-EV to tie up the money for the season, no?

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29
 

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't look close at it, must be number of wins. Has to be
-EV to tie up the money for the season, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29
 

Not to mention I wouldn't be too comfortable betting long-term futures at sportsbook. The Celtics could have 12 wins with 1 game left in the season and they could 'no-action' all futures bets.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29
 

Maybe I'm naive, but after 5 plus years of good experiences on sportsbook, I am not worried about them. Anyway, I can understand some people's hesitation.

General question, what would you consider true odds to be of any basketball team hitting such a number exactly? I'm picturing somewhere between 5% and 8% in my mind.

I haven't looked at all of them closely yet, but I assume there will be more of these available. I looked at the Celts because I actually really like their over, so I ended up putting more on that side of this.

A buddy of mine found 5 of these types of middles and half-middles at the start of the baseball season, and I was surprised how close they were. Three of them were in play on the final weekend, and one hit (KC), so he had a decent return for the season. Could just be variance, but I think more often than not teams are in the vicinity of their expected numbers.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29
 

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't look close at it, must be number of wins. Has to be
-EV to tie up the money for the season, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is not -EV FFS. It's not "optimal", but not -EV.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29
 

right, read your rant.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Thread*** 10/23-10/29
 

You can be paid your skansky dollars in a lump sum at the end of the season or in monthly installments over the course of the season, so of course it's +EV.