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#12
08-30-2007, 12:21 PM
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Re: River play. Raise, fold or call.
LOL Maybe I am not running bad, I am just bad at poker.
I am glad I posted this hand. Its so [censored] obvious what I have and I cant expect any decent player who knows me to fold a better hand. 
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#13
08-30-2007, 12:50 PM
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Re: River play. Raise, fold or call.
Yeah given his stats he seems decent and if he thinks the same of you hes not gonna fold an overpair at least and i wouldnt and propably 95% of all players i know wouldnt. Raising can also get u in a spot when u have to fold for one bet in a huge pot or paying 3 bets for sd when u beat like 98% instead of paying 1 when theres still a decent chance u have the goods.
U r not bad at poker because of this Hand, i make certainly worse mistakes even when iam running good.
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#14
08-30-2007, 01:24 PM
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Re: River play. Raise, fold or call.
It is absolutely nothing wrong with this raise if you´re sure that BB is fooling around.
You´re folding out an overpair more than 1 in 11 times IMO. Button is sandwiched between two players and he is in a tough spot where he very well could think that he might have to put in three bets to see the showdown. River raises of these kinds are not that common and I think that it is a much bigger chance that he interprets your raise for being a halfbadly slowplayed hand than a raise with a T. The last action a player takes are usually better correlated to their actual hand value regardless of how he has played his hand uptil then.Most players knows that and will therefore lay down an overpair in this spot more often than most posters think IMO. But you really have to be quite sure that BB hasn´t got it before making this raise.
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#15
08-30-2007, 01:48 PM
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Re: River play. Raise, fold or call.
Button may know what hero is up to here if hero raises this river. Button perhaps knows about BB's playing style and will call two bets with KK/AA. He can't imagine you having a Jack here, and getting to the river here with 44 isn't very likely. So he might very well put you on AT (as he should) and call.
In general, I favor raising in this spot, because the bad player gives us a chance to squeeze out a better hand. But in this case, I think you get looked up far more often than usual because of the oddness of your river raise.
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#16
08-30-2007, 01:50 PM
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Re: River play. Raise, fold or call.
No way button folds an overpair here. He seems decent enough, so he knows a thinking player would ALWAYS CR the field on the turn, if not the flop, with a J. I'd just call BB's donk and hope button overcalls with 99, 88, etc. and fold if I'm faced with any more bets.
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#17
08-30-2007, 02:13 PM
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Re: River play. Raise, fold or call.
fwiw there is a good chance BB has a jack here IMO
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