Interpreting the Turn Push

[mikech]

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I think this is a terrible bet if he has the nuts.

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why? you called, didn't you? if you have AA/KK/QQ you have 10 outs, if you have AK/AQ you have 4. you are almost never folding AA/KK/QQ and you may also call with AK/AQ. he doesn't want to see the board pair so he pushes while he's still got the nuts, what's terrible about that?

[Big Dave D]

He's bet 3x pot. The only hands he has a chance of me calling are AA/KK/QQ with a very slim chance of AK. But why on earth should he suspect me of these? I've shown almost no strength at all. And if he things Im an aggro idiot, then it makes more sense to give me the chance to raise or bet. Even a bad loose player wakes up and smells the coffee if he is facing such a bet.

gl

dd

[aejones]

OK, I'd say his range of hands is AA(maybe 2-5% of the time), QQ(maybe 10-20% of the time), AK (10-20%), AQ(15-20%), JT( about 50%), AJ or AT (5% or so) and air only a few percent of the time.

I would have reraised the flop, with the third best hand possible. I'd make his 100 into 250 at least. However, given the way he played it, I don't think you can get away from calling that all in. At worst, you have 10 outs I believe, and at best, you are completely dominating him. I take AA nearly out of the picture.

And yes, his raise is weak. If he's going to check raise, he needs to make it 150 or 175, even with the nuts, to be able to make a more pot sized bet on the turn.

[all_in_lam]

You played the flop so weak i dont see him pushing wiht 10J expecting a call. AA would likely reraise preflop esp if he's on tilt.

Results?

[Big Dave D]

I prefer deceptive to weak [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Of course he had the JT and I brick. Even more bizarrely, the JT was suited and the turn had given him a flush draw redraw.

gl

dd

[all_in_lam]

Wow clever push. He must have suspected you to have a big hand (ak/set) that would call a push. Either that or he was just on tilt and wanted to drag the bar as far to the right as possible.

[gergery]

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Of course I called, and didnt hesitate for a second.

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I didnt say it was a bad bet with a range of hands, just a bad bet with the nuts. Unless like I said he knows how I play but he hasnt played me enough to know this. And considering how I played the flop, it doesnt even look like I have a hand even a fraction as strong as this.

gl

dd

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Seems like a good read and push on his part.

After you call his flop bet he knows given your 3 actions in the hand so far that you hit this flop 100% of the time. If you’ve got two pair or set then he knows random opponent is fairly likely to call him, and even 1-pair plus gutshot might get stupid.

-g

[Big Dave D]

Hi Greg

Starting to feel like my blog... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

At this level, 5-10, I havent seen many folk willing to call a 3x pot bet with the lower end of hands you state. If he thinks Im loose poor aggro then he has to give me a chance to make a bet. Because if I am that kind of player than the vast bulk of hands I *could* have in that spot are much, much weaker. And he will get paid on them - assuming his thoughts on me are right - but not when I have to make such an out-of-line decision.

If we have played a couple of K hands together and we have decided that we are both good players *then* it is a great bet, imho.

gl

dd

[Big Dave D]

Missed this...Ive been PLO free for the whole of '06 and a little b4 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

dd