15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps

[luckychewy]

i'd call and close my eyes, then shove any flop.

[GoRedBirds]

Thanks for the replies, all. Registrar, After calling the raise to t1800 after posting t600, I'd have t2800. Does this change anything?

[registrar]

Yes, I think so. If you were up agaisnt one player, with a 11k behind stack, the pot is 4k odd and you push 2800 into that, closing the action, he's goining to call unless he was raising really light and has missed the board by a million miles. If it's two players, the pot is 6k or so, the first player is going to have a hard time calling with overcards, for example, or an underpair to the board, because he's not closing the action. The second player should call with anything if player one folds but people make mistakes and he might not, you might have the best hand etc.

I think it's easier for OR to flatcall your flop push of 2200 into 6000 than it is to call a flop push of 2800 into 6000.

(all figures are approx.)

Basically, if you decide to play this hand, you have to be willing to go broke and be a dog but as you are short that is a chance that you may have to take. I'm not sure, it's tricky. However, what you need to decide is which line is most =EV. Calling to fold the flop is definitely bad.

I'm not sure what I'd do but I think I'd call and push the flop because people fold here a lot more than they should.

[GoRedBirds]

Thanks again for the thoughts. The debate I was having with my buddy was whether or not set-mining was ok here and that losing t1200 would not really decrease my EV ($$-wise, not t$-wise) given the structure of the tourney. At this stage we were looking at about 1 more orbit for the tiny stacks to drop and we're ITM (meaning folding preflop or postflop makes us $15). If we hit the set, we're almost at the average chipstack and ready to play poker again. However, if we push we're up against at least one caller in at best a race.

[Spanga7]

Couple points:
1) I mean no offense, but playing set minded here is absolutely the wrong way to think about the situation. Your implied odds are not even close. You will hit your set 1/8 times on the flop. At this stage in the tournament, sets are not important unless two big stacks are dueling.
2) A stop and go does not work unless you are in earlier position and will act first postflop, which could allow you to make 7s-9s fold or possibly 10s. Raymer made an interesting post about such a play, but this situation does not fit the bill.
3) When it gets close to the money, with relatively large blinds, and a mp raises and someone calls, it is significant. Your stack is not large enough to get them to fold at all, and I think you should try to open raise on another hand.

[GoRedBirds]

Thanks, I folded and busted out somewhere in the 160s. I think that this is best here, although I wanted to see if other options were out there.

[umistboy]

Yeah I would fold too. Too optomistic to think we can bulkly any out here (maybe caller). Even then the OR must have raised again and would have 66 crushed.

Fold and begin to push in next few hands.

[umistboy]

What would we do if OR had no callers?

Do we still fold or push?

[Spanga7]

umistboy, that's interesting. I think the read on the particular person would come more into play in such a scenario.

[JohnFR]

fold I would rather open push 23o on the button, that +EV is higher.
Cheers!
John