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#1
10-11-2007, 07:14 AM
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Live (B&M) 6/12 Lose rate
I made these back-of-the-napkin calculations/estimations recently, are they a reasonable estimation? Is it impossible to be profitable at 6/12 at these rates?
My local gaming establishments drop $4 / hand no matter what happens ($3 + $1 bad beat jackpot, but you only get that back if you win and should only average that in if you play an insane number of hands). Let's say I tip out an average of $2 / hand. Therefore at 35 hands / hr, $210 / hr is coming off the table. At a 10 player table that's $21 / player / hr. At the well-publicized max win rate of 1 big bet / hr a perfect player can therefore expect to lose $9 / hr playing at this game. 
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#4
10-11-2007, 08:13 AM
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Re: Live (B&M) 6/12 Lose rate
a good player should be able to make more than 1BB/hr w/no rake.
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#7
10-11-2007, 02:03 PM
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Re: Live (B&M) 6/12 Lose rate
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] a good player should be able to make more than 1BB/hr w/no rake. [/ QUOTE ] How much more? According to these numbers you need to make 2BB/hr just to have a small edge. [/ QUOTE ] the "gold standard" of 1 BB/hr in general takes into account the high rake at a B&M cardroom. Thus, when a good player makes 1 BB/hr, with no rake he would make much more. therefore your calculation is in error.
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#8
10-11-2007, 04:26 PM
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Re: Live (B&M) 6/12 Lose rate
My 6/12 game rakes 3 dollars (no flop no drop though), takes 1 dollar for the jackpots, and I tip 1 dollar per hand (unless I steal the blinds, in which case I don't tip if I don't like the dealer). Basically, it's almost exactly the same as OP's game.
Two things to consider OP: 1. You should be winning fewer pots than the average player at your table and thus "paying" less rake. This is because you are tighter preflop, presumably. 2. It's fine to tip 1 dollar a hand. Seriously. If they are dealing 35 hands an hour, you're saying those dealers are making $70 an hour, or 140K a year? I'm all for the dealers being well paid and all, but I think 35 bucks an hour + their actual (likely minimum) wage is plenty. All that said, at my current game my goal has been to win 1BB per hour, after rake. In the last 100+ hours I'm right below that (like .9 or so), and believe that I'm running pretty averagely. I've done some calculations previously on the effect rake has at 3/6, 6/12, and 15/30 at my local card room (which all have the exact same rake structure), and trust me it is sobering to see. Work it out for yourself assuming a true win rate of 2BB per hour and standard rake (assuming 2 to 4 pots per hour), or search for my thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] My conclusion: At my local card room, 3/6 is practically unbeatable, but 6/12 can be handily crushed.
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#9
10-11-2007, 04:30 PM
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Re: Live (B&M) 6/12 Lose rate
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#10
10-12-2007, 08:13 PM
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Re: Live (B&M) 6/12 Lose rate
The important point here is that you only pay the rake and tip when you win a pot. A tight player does not enter very many hands and does not win very many pots compared to the loose players at the table. As a tight player you do not pay $21 an hour. You would have to win 4 pots per hour to pay that much. A tight player is not going to win 4 pots per hour, unless you are on a hot streak. You will probably average around 2 to 3 pots and hour.
It is the loose players at the table who win more pots that pay most of the rake and tips. Now that means the loose players go broke faster because of the rake, but that is not your problem as long as there is a waiting list of loose players to replace them when they go broke.
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