how badly did i botch this hand?

bigjoet · #1 08-21-2007, 01:38 AM

why couldnt one have a big Q and another a big heart? then the 3 bet would be value

MitchL · #2 08-21-2007, 01:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
why couldnt one have a big Q and another a big heart? then the 3 bet would be value

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking this also and I think you shouldve posted this hand in stages as there could be a results problem with the turn. Ultimately, I dont think you are ahead of a turn raiser and a cold caller enough of the time to make this raise. Its definitely not as bad as it was at first blush though.

tessarji · #3 08-21-2007, 03:31 AM

I think you played this hand fine. Particularly since it was a shorthanded pot that was capped pre-flop, though a made flush or set is possible on the turn there are also a lot of worse hands with big hearts that could be out there.

When you get four bet, obviously you have to puke a little but I think folding at any point in this hand is not an option.

private joker · #4 08-21-2007, 03:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
there are also a lot of worse hands with big hearts that could be out there.

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Joe has the Ah and the Qh is on the board. I don't think "a lot" really qualifies -- KhQx is really the only super-likely "big heart" hand that might 4-bet the turn.

tessarji · #5 08-21-2007, 03:59 AM

I agree that the four bet is bad news.

When faced with a raise and cold-caller, I still suspect a chance that someone has AQ or KK, and someone has a hand containing the Kh or Jh. The fact that this hand started in a six-way pot with a stealer and re-stealer means ranges are wider than usual. The button might have a flush on the turn, but if so he appeared to play it terribly.

After the four-bet it seems impossible that your hand is best on this river, but folding 19:1?

tessarji · #6 08-21-2007, 04:16 AM

Let's consider the 'perfect storm' situation where you confront both a made flush and a set.

Board: 8h 4h 2s Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.286% 14.29% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 61.905% 61.90% 00.00% 26 0.00 { KhJh }
Hand 2: 23.810% 23.81% 00.00% 10 0.00 { QcQs }

versus a best case where you are against top pair and a totally dominated draw

Board: 8h 4h 2s Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 95.238% 95.24% 00.00% 40 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { KhJs }
Hand 2: 04.762% 04.76% 00.00% 2 0.00 { AcQc }

In case one, if you get four-bet and everyone calls you got sucked into a 1.14 BB mistake.

In case two, by _not_ three betting when both opponents would call you made a 1.86 BB mistake.

My point being, the equity you lose from not three betting in the best case is actually a bigger loss than when you get four-bet with poor outs.

Since I don't think the action at the crucial point on the turn has weighted you overwhelmingly to case 1, three betting is plausible because of your very good redraw.

DeathDonkey · #7 08-21-2007, 04:33 AM

Yeah basically what tessarji said only without all those facts [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

gaming_mouse · #8 08-21-2007, 10:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Let's consider the 'perfect storm' situation where you confront both a made flush and a set.

Board: 8h 4h 2s Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.286% 14.29% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 61.905% 61.90% 00.00% 26 0.00 { KhJh }
Hand 2: 23.810% 23.81% 00.00% 10 0.00 { QcQs }

versus a best case where you are against top pair and a totally dominated draw

Board: 8h 4h 2s Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 95.238% 95.24% 00.00% 40 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { KhJs }
Hand 2: 04.762% 04.76% 00.00% 2 0.00 { AcQc }

In case one, if you get four-bet and everyone calls you got sucked into a 1.14 BB mistake.

In case two, by _not_ three betting when both opponents would call you made a 1.86 BB mistake.

My point being, the equity you lose from not three betting in the best case is actually a bigger loss than when you get four-bet with poor outs.

Since I don't think the action at the crucial point on the turn has weighted you overwhelmingly to case 1, three betting is plausible because of your very good redraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 1.14 vs 1.86 BB comparison is moot, since once the turn is raised you are far more likely to be facing case 1 (or some other case where you are behind).