AKs vs some strange line.

Kimpan · #1 10-21-2007, 10:34 AM

Don't know what to make of his flopline, it looks weak or monster. On this board I don't see many monsters so I'm leaning towards a weak hand, AK,AQ,AJ or some middle pp.
He may not be folding his mid pp but at least I have chance to draw out on him if that's what he is holding.
When he raises, what do I put him on? QQ,JJ? I need to be good about 24% to make the call..

PartyPoker $200 NL Hold'em (6 handed) HandRecorder v0.9b

Stacks & Stats
UTG ($215.78)
MP ($176.96) (35/9/2.46/24) (80h)
CO ($380.07)
SB ($198)
BB ($258.15)
Hero ($212)

Preflop: Hero is BU with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
1 folds, MP raises to $8, 1 folds, Hero raises to $27, 2 folds, MP calls $19.

Flop: ($57) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $20, Hero raises to $64, MP raises to $149.96 (all-in), Hero...

Unknown Soldier · #2 10-21-2007, 10:49 AM

hate hate hate the flop raise. i'd 3b smaller vs this guy too.

monkover · #3 10-21-2007, 10:50 AM

pot=57$+64$+148$=269$
so youre getting like 269-86 --> 3.12 to 1
I´m not sure wether you have enough equity here vs villain´s range

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

29,700 games 0.005 secs 5,940,000 games/sec

Board: 6h 6d 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.369% 24.36% 00.01% 7236 1.50 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 75.631% 75.63% 00.01% 22461 1.50 { 99+ }

If this range is kind of accurate this is a very marginal call.
75*86=6450$
25*269=6750$

--->300/100=3$ so you make a net win of 1.5bb here.

This of course is based on the presumption that villain´s range is 99+ which of course i do not know wether or no this is accurate. Adding other, smaller overpairs only improves our equity by 1 or 2% though so this is negligable...
So this imo def is a very marginal situation...

Anybody thinks my range is way off though? This is a 35/5 so his range could be kind of different b/c they obv do all sorts of crap all the time. If there is any kind of 6 in villain´s range which i doubt our equity drops a lot and this becomes and instamuck.