another 10/20 LO8 hand

[1MoreFish4U]

I actually think it is not a bad idea to raise the turn, since the button is leading the betting. I would not have planned to c/r, but at this point you may get players with non-nut draws to lay down, and give yourself better chances at a piece of the pot (or all of it) with a favourable river.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised that you think hero is actually ahead on this flop. He has King high against 6 opponents---I highly doubt he is ahead here.

[/ QUOTE ]Rush - He's ahead. Period.

I thought he was ahead, but since you questioned it, I ran a seven handed 100,000 run simulation (non-folding, Hero's hand and six random hands). For Hero:<ul type="square">4373.71 high only pots
1760.42 low only pots
9341 scooped pots.[/list]The "high only pots" in this simulation is the summation of the total fractions of the pot Hero won for high (half when he doesn't split with another high, a quarter or sixth or eighth when he does split with another high). Ditto for the low.

Thus to get 4373.71 listed for "high only pots" in this 100,000 run simulation, Hero might have won <ul type="square">7408 high halves of pots,
2564 high quarters of pots,
170 high sixths of pots, and
3 high eighths of pots.[/list]Something like that.

Hero's win total was 15475.13.
Hero's six opponents averaged 14087.48.

Hero's hand is clearly ahead in the simulation. (You can run your own simulation and see for yourself).

(Hero's hand also won with trips 147/2074 times and with two pairs, but these seem rather trivial).

[ QUOTE ]
I agree if he flopped a monster draw that he might actually be the favorite against the field, but all he has is a straight draw and a few of his outs are tainted.

[/ QUOTE ]Not quite. He also has a back-door 2nd nut flush draw. In the simulation, starting from the flop, and simulating the turn and river (and six random hands for opponents) 100,000 times, Hero made 4560 flushes and won with 2791 of them. Hero also won or tied 16089 out of 34300 times with straights. Those figures are a bit misleading because they're for non-folding simulations. For example, Hero would fold if the board paired on the turn, rather than drawing for a possible losing flush or straight on the river. The simulation results do not reflect Hero's superior play after the flop, merely how often Hero actually would win if nobody folded. And in that case, Hero's hand would beat six other hands more often than a random hand dealt to an opponent would beat six other hands which included Hero's hand.

I don't know if I've explained the simulation results well enough or not. But at any rate, Hero probably has the best chance of winning after this flop than any of his opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd take the free flop here if I could get it.

[/ QUOTE ]Maybe you have some way to make passive play like that work for you, but taking the free turn card would be a major mistake for me, with my playing style, in my humble opinion.

[ QUOTE ]
I also don't see how betting gives you any more information than if you elected to just check/call;

[/ QUOTE ]Opponents will mostly either call or fold. If they call, then I wonder how their cards fit with this flop. Without the bet, I have no idea whether they have some sort of fit with the flop or not. Without the bet, if someone bets in last position, I don't know if that is betting the vacuum or betting a hand/flop fit.

If someone raises, there are some implications to be drawn, depending on the position of the raiser and other factors. (Different individuals play differently, so that it's hard to generalize).

[ QUOTE ]
it's not like you have a hand to speak of---you have a draw with no pair

[/ QUOTE ]I agree that if the game was over after the flop, then Hero's hand would be a loser.

[ QUOTE ]
so it really wouldn't matter if you were called OR raised because someone might raise you with top 2...a set...or a nut flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]Not quite true that "it really wouldn't matter." I agree that someone might either call or raise with any of those hands. However, people play differently. Some individuals might call with anything but top set but raise with top set. There's no getting around knowing how your opponents play.

[ QUOTE ]
And, if you make your hand, it won't matter what the previous actions were because you'll know that your hand is good.

[/ QUOTE ]Good point! Well... not quite true. But Hero's cards fit with this flop in such a way that many times when Hero makes his draw it will be the nuts.

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing that I'd like about betting is that he might fold off better running low draws,...

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. [ QUOTE ]
...but still, at this point, his hand is pretty rough from all angles, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]Well... it's a drawing hand. But Omaha-8 is a drawing game.

That's how I see it.

Buzz

[niss]

another excellent post buzz

[gergery]

I disagree and don't like betting the flop from UTG.

First, your opponents don't have random hands, they have better than random hands. Unless some of your opponents are playing literally very hand, which you didn't mention. If you run a simulation with adjusted hands, say vs. 4 opponents who are playing top 30%, 40%, 60% and 70% of their hands to pick some numbers somewhat at random, you find your equity is 15% when you need 20+% to be EV+. (this uses propokertools which only simulates max of 5 players, adding 2 other players will help your equity somewhat, but you do not have a clear equity advantage).

Second, winning portions of the pot as in Buzz's simulations is not the objective. Winning money is. And due to the potitional disadvantage you have, many times you will a) incorrectly fold given the pot odds to pressure, b) win 0 bets when ahead/winning but lose 1 bets when behind (ie. you hit a 9 for your striaght on the turn and see a Q on the river -- then you check-call w second nut straight while missed flushes check behind and nutstraits bet). So your equity having to bet/call/raise/fold on next 3 streets will be worse than hot-cold equity.

Lastly, you can't control the action. Sometimes you'll be raised and lose action from players who'd call 1 bet cold but not 2. generally the people who will fold here and ones you want to have around and the ones you don't want around will often raise you or at minimum never fold.

if you're in LP or maybe MP or if your hand was stronger like rainbow flop, then different story.

but if your games are vastly different than mine, by all means bet out.

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
48,047 trials (Randomized)
board: JhTs5s
Hand Pot equity
KdQd4h3d 15.71%
30% 22.50%
40% 21.30%
60% 20.52%
70% 19.97%

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree and don't like betting the flop from UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Greg. Hero is in the small blind. We don't play this hand from UTG. (A reasonable case can be made for folding it for a half bet from the small blind).

[ QUOTE ]
First, your opponents don't have random hands, they have better than random hands.

[/ QUOTE ]Greg - Seven players saw the flop. Enough said.

[ QUOTE ]
Unless some of your opponents are playing literally very hand, which you didn't mention.

[/ QUOTE ]Tweak didn't exactly mention that some opponents were playing almost every hand, but seven players saw the flop. Draw your own conclusion.

[ QUOTE ]
If you run a simulation with adjusted hands, say vs. 4 opponents who are playing top 30%, 40%, 60% and 70% of their hands to pick some numbers somewhat at random, you find your equity is 15% when you need 20+% to be EV+. (this uses propokertools which only simulates max of 5 players, adding 2 other players will help your equity somewhat, but you do not have a clear equity advantage).

[/ QUOTE ]I'll concede that Hero does not have a very good starting hand. However, I think he does have a better fit with this flop than the average opponent. And that might be even truer if you give Hero's opponents cards that would be considered in the top 20% of starting hands. For example,
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], a hand I'd certainly consider a better starting hand, does not seem as good as Hero's hand after this flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Second, winning portions of the pot as in Buzz's simulations is not the objective. Winning money is.

[/ QUOTE ]You're playing with words. When you win the pot, you win money. When you win half of the pot, you win money. I'd certainly rather scoop. And I play to scoop. For example, Hero should bet this flop to increase his chances of scooping. Hero may not scoop here - (Certainly not if he let's in the free-loaders) - but if he doesn't scoop, winning a portion of the pot is worth more than getting shut out. The non-folding simulation I ran is not a realistic indicator of play. It just tells us Hero is probably ahead after this particular flop.

[ QUOTE ]
And due to the potitional disadvantage you have,...

[/ QUOTE ]That's a good point. I agree Hero is at a positional disadvantage. But he cannot really do anything about that now - unless you have him check/fold. Do you want him to check/fold here? If not, let's let him play his cards as well as possible.

[ QUOTE ]
...many times you will a) incorrectly fold given the pot odds to pressure, b) win 0 bets when ahead/winning but lose 1 bets when behind (ie. you hit a 9 for your striaght on the turn and see a Q on the river -- then you check-call w second nut straight while missed flushes check behind and nutstraits bet). So your equity having to bet/call/raise/fold on next 3 streets will be worse than hot-cold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]That may be true. I'll concede that it is, because it doesn't make any difference, unless you want Hero to check/fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Lastly, you can't control the action.

[/ QUOTE ]Certainly not if you check! [ QUOTE ]
Sometimes you'll be raised and lose action from players who'd call 1 bet cold but not 2.

[/ QUOTE ]That's a good point for a normal slightly aggressive game - but the information we are given is this is a passive game. [ QUOTE ]
generally the people who will fold here and ones you want to have around and the ones you don't want around will often raise you or at minimum never fold.

[/ QUOTE ]Often that's true. As a generality, it might be true. But with this particular flop, maybe it's not. Betting here might get rid of a baby spade flush draw or a set of fives. Betting here probably gets rid of a bare ace-deuce back-door low draw. Betting here might get rid of a nut heart back-door low draw. Of course you're not going to knock out a set of jacks, or probably tens. And you're probably not going to knock out the nut spade draw. But I believe you do substantially increase your chances over the non-folding simulation results by betting here. And it's not betting with nothing. I guess you could call it a semi-bluff. Whatever you call it, I still like it better than check/calling, and also better than check/folding or check/raising.

[ QUOTE ]
if you're in LP or maybe MP or if your hand was stronger like rainbow flop, then different story.

[/ QUOTE ]I like having position better. I like a flop with two or three hearts better. I even like a rainbow flop better. But you play what you get.

[ QUOTE ]
but if your games are vastly different than mine, by all means bet out.

[/ QUOTE ]Another good point. How to play does depend on your opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
48,047 trials (Randomized)
board: JhTs5s
Hand Pot equity
KdQd4h3d 15.71%
30% 22.50%
40% 21.30%
60% 20.52%
70% 19.97%

[/ QUOTE ]Interesting. Thanks for sharing.

Buzz

[chaos]

I would bet the flop.

When the flop is two high cards and one low card and the flop fits my hand, I usually bet. It is very important not to give players with only a back door low a free card. You prefer players with weak draws or weak hands to fold. Players will not fold to a check! You must bet these flops!

- chaos

[WMB]

bet the flop
bet the turn
As played, a c-r here is best IMO
smoke the river