100NL 86sooted...

[RiverDancer]

I don't think this hand is that bad. It doesn't really matter that you have the crap end of both draws, because you have both draws. If the villain played that flop so aggressively with KQ hearts (the only hand you're almost dead to), he's either a genius or a moron. If villain has a set then you are only a 60/40 dog. If villain has KQ then you are a 64/36 dog. I feel like this is an acceptable amount of risk, and your fold-equity while low, is not zero. The only hand you really hope he doesn't have is QhTh (82/18 dog) or KhQh (almost dead). Nothing wrong with a little variance...

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The flop is an extremely gross spot. I probably would have bet a little less, like 12 or so. Theres just no reason to pot this. I'd also check the flop a lot here. As played, shoving can't be that terrible, but I think its a fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Here's something to consider. I'm almost certain that the villian has a set after he raises my flop bet. Ironically, I think this makes a push correct.

[/ QUOTE ]
At this point that may be true (if he does indeed have a set) but myself I like to avoid those situations where I have to puke before I push.

Are you trying to justify the push or the play of the whole hand? Cause I think the former is kinda like playing a pair super bad and by the end saying "well I had to push" when you have $10 left in a $200 pot.

[1p0kerboy]

I like your analysis Riverdancer.

Like I said, I don't think this player is calling my pfr with KQ. If he did have KQh I don't think he's going to raise so much on the flop.

If I know that I have 0 fold equity the pot is still laying me enough to run the 60/40 (it's actually 60/38 with a 2% tie or something like that).

[1p0kerboy]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you trying to justify the push or the play of the whole hand?


[/ QUOTE ]

Not really trying to justify anything. I thought it was an interesting hand and maybe see what you guys thought about alternative ways to play it.

I think betting too much less on the flop is worse than just checking.

I suppose you could bet 12 and then fold to a raise. But I don't know if that's better or not.

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you trying to justify the push or the play of the whole hand?


[/ QUOTE ]

Not really trying to justify anything. I thought it was an interesting hand and maybe see what you guys thought about alternative ways to play it.

I think betting too much less on the flop is worse than just checking.

I suppose you could bet 12 and then fold to a raise. But I don't know if that's better or not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well the hand certainly doesn't play by itself. It's one of the better ones that have been posted recently.

[1p0kerboy]

Now that I'm crunching numbers, if we bet 12 and he raises and we know he has a set we have to push.

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
Now that I'm crunching numbers, if we bet 12 and he raises and we know he has a set we have to push.

[/ QUOTE ]
Can you post your calculations?

[DrClaw]

Are you sure a call is right after you lead for 12? This is how I see the numbers:

EV = equity*( Potsize + hero's reraise + villan's call ) - cost of hero's reraise

Pot = 5*3+12+40 = 67 (right before the reraise)
hero's reraise (plus call) = 40+52 = 92 (52 is the rest of the stack)
villan's call = 52
pokenum -h 8h 6h - tc ts -- 9c th jh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9c Jh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8h 6h 372 37.58 591 59.70 27 2.73 0.389
Ts Tc 591 59.70 372 37.58 27 2.73 0.611

:::::::::: EV = 0.389*(67+92+52) - 92 = $-9.92 ::::::::::

This calculation is done assuming that he never folds and he has a set of Ts. To add fold equity we can just add in another term based on the % of times he will fold. But based on his nit stats and big flop bet I'd say its a negligable %. So, you can fold after a $12 flop bet.

[betgo]

Preflop is OK, particularly with read. You could also limp behind with only one limper and limper UTG.

I think you have to get the money in on the flop with the flush and open ended draws, even though the draws are low and it is an action flop.

[Jurrr]

I didn't stove this, but I think this is marginally good if Button puts you on an isolation steal and could be playing back at you and marginally bad if he always has a more or less real hand.