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#13
10-23-2007, 03:31 PM
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Re: 5/10 NL HOW DO I BEAT THIS &@^#%@ER!
[ QUOTE ]
adjust? [/ QUOTE ] don't be silly, that won't work. 
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#14
10-23-2007, 03:47 PM
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Re: 5/10 NL HOW DO I BEAT THIS &@^#%@ER!
I don't think this is complicated at all. Here's one strategy:
1- Attempt to steal the blinds every time with a raise to $30. You'll win an average of $7.50 each time he folds preflop. 2- When he calls, bet only if you hit something. Assume for simplicity sake that your equity in the flop is only 35%, or about $20 of a $60 raked pot. Thus, on average you're going to lose $10.00 on any hand that goes to a flop ($20 - $30). I realize this is a little oversimplified, but hopefully this little analysis will help get the point across. Here's your overall EV in 100 hands: 77 won preflop (since his VPIP is 23%, he folds 77% of the time preflop) = +$577.50 EV 23 hands to the flop = -$230 EV OVERALL: +$347.50 EV or +$3.48 per hand. This is why you should steal from a 23/8 like crazy. His 23/8 is just a losing HU strategy. Further, if he has this major preflop leak, he probably also has some major post flop leaks. Try to figure those out and you'll win even more.
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