Re: 99 rivers boat
What does UTG have? I think it's unlikely that he has you beat. KK and JJ would often cap, and 22 wouldn't often open raise from there. Then again, if he tends to crawl into his shell when played back at... As opening QT from there and calling flop seems unlikely, I think he usually just has two pair. JJ seems the most likely holding that can beat us, and that's unlikely given another on the board, and that he'd possibly fold at the flop. With the action so far (his lack of aggression), putting him on a better hand a decent amount of time would be a mistake IMO. I think he'll bet out with many hands after the turn gets checked through. I also don't think the other two guys could have you beaten very often at all.
I consider this river a raise. I don't think both players behind you will overcall, and the UTG will almost certainly pay you off or raise. So I think raising will get you the same or more than going for overcalls when a possible call on the end from LP for two big bets in factored in.
edit - I just remembered this is live, where getting two overcalls would be easier than online. But I still say raise, as a good live calling station will often call for another two bets on the end?
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10-20-2007, 03:24 PM
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