99 rivers boat
 

10/20 full.

utg (plays fairly solid, is aggressive but tends to crawl into a shell when played back at) raises, 1 caller, I call next in with black 99, HJ calls, button (fairly aggro, range here is 77+, ATs+, KQs) 3 bets, all call (anyone cap?). 5 way.


Flop is K22, two hearts, checked to button who bets, everyone calls.

Turn is the Jh. Checked around.

River 9d. UTG (PFR) bets, next guy folds.

Question 1: wtf does UTG have?
2: raise or go for overcalls?

Re: 99 rivers boat
 

What does UTG have? I think it's unlikely that he has you beat. KK and JJ would often cap, and 22 wouldn't often open raise from there. Then again, if he tends to crawl into his shell when played back at... As opening QT from there and calling flop seems unlikely, I think he usually just has two pair. JJ seems the most likely holding that can beat us, and that's unlikely given another on the board, and that he'd possibly fold at the flop. With the action so far (his lack of aggression), putting him on a better hand a decent amount of time would be a mistake IMO. I think he'll bet out with many hands after the turn gets checked through. I also don't think the other two guys could have you beaten very often at all.

I consider this river a raise. I don't think both players behind you will overcall, and the UTG will almost certainly pay you off or raise. So I think raising will get you the same or more than going for overcalls when a possible call on the end from LP for two big bets in factored in.

edit - I just remembered this is live, where getting two overcalls would be easier than online. But I still say raise, as a good live calling station will often call for another two bets on the end?

Re: 99 rivers boat
 

[ QUOTE ]

I consider this river a raise. I don't think both players behind you will overcall, and the UTG will almost certainly pay you off or raise. So I think raising will get you the same or more than going for overcalls when a possible call on the end from LP for two big bets in factored in.



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Re: 99 rivers boat
 

3bet pf so he can crawl in a shell.

i would raise the river.

Re: 99 rivers boat
 

I like that we're thinking of overcalls here - something I need to practice. But I don't think I'd have the discipline here, anyway it's not as though there are 6 people behind you. With more action likely to come it's at least the same as raising. So, raise, and hope for a reraise since you've most likely won. UTG has AK, maybe K9, maybe AQ heart flush.

Re: 99 rivers boat
 

I think UTG has JJ and was expecting aggro button to bet; he missed his checkraise. Either that or it's the worst played AK or KK in the history of poker. I think the board texture really limits his holding at this point.

I wouldn't go for overcalls; just raise. Given everything that's out there you might get someone calling two anyway.