Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)

[Utah]

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My feeling in this case is that more bettors are looking to bet the +1.5 than the -1.5. This thread is a reflection of this natural demand, people want to be able to win without having to see a +350 dog win the game...thus they take the points or in this case the runline.

The sample size is too small to say that is the case based on the data alone. Still, my feeling is that the runline is shaded down. The books and/or linemakers may think it is fair value since they get plenty of action on the dog side at that price. From my experience, they often make valuations based on past betting. If in the past, when the line has been that high and they've received plenty of action on +1.5 +140, then they are likely to keep the line the same due to expected action.

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I guess my question is this. Assume you know nothing about the actual event other than the current ML and RL. You are armed with the knowledge of your DB and the knowledge that the going RL market rate is +129/-139 and the going ML rate is 330/-360. Are you more inclined to take the softline +140 or the arb?

[King Yao]

arbing for a penny is a tough way to make money especially if the second side moves after you make your initial wager (make sure you bet the -139 first), but I'd prefer the arb over taking +140. I may prefer -1.5 -139 over the arb, but that would mean looking more carefully at a few issues about runlines that I haven't looked into yet.

[Utah]

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but I'd prefer the arb over taking +140. I may prefer -1.5 -139 over the arb, but that would mean looking more carefully at a few issues about runlines that I haven't looked into yet.

[/ QUOTE ]Thanks for your thoughts. Interesting. I am trying to figure out if there is a very fast way to make a determination on decisions when you have a favorable line past the arbitrage point. I figure it can't be too off to simply always bet the softside but there may be something more optimal.

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arbing for a penny is a tough way to make money especially if the second side moves after you make your initial wager

[/ QUOTE ]As a one-off it is worthless. However, I was able to bet 18 different events during that hour and 1 cent arbs at least get into action unused funds. To place one additional arb is like 20 seconds. I don't have enough experience yet with one side moving but it you get caught on a bad arb once in a while it doesn't make a huge difference considering sometimes it will move in your favor.

[onlinebeginner]

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Johan is getting that kind of line b/c the books dont think that Washington can with the series.

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i'm basically a newb sports bettor... i make a few bets when i think the lines are way off but that's about it... anyway can someone explain this logic to me... noones contested it so i assume it's correct

what does the series have to do with the pricing on a particular game?

[onlinebeginner]

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