Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

lol

Will this climb higher?

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

lol...that's what I just asked myself 30 seconds before I came here to see if there was a thread about it

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

Gonna be some nice value in Pitt +1.5 tomorrow. And Washington getting like +350 against the Twins and Santana? Um ok take that shiat everytime. Johan hasn't been amazing lately to get this kind of line.

-Brendan

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

Johan is getting that kind of line b/c the books dont think that Washington can with the series.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

This Clemens line is gonna be fun to watch. Just like Dice-K.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

Parlay PIT +1.5 +110/WAS +1.5 +140

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Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

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Parlay PIT +1.5 +110/WAS +1.5 +140

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I have WAS +1.5 +140 and PIT 1.5 +120. Both on straight bets though. I am thinking on playing Washington +350. My hometown Twins are not playing so great right now and Santana certainly hasnt looked unstoppable. The 350 line seems out of whack.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

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I have WAS +1.5 +140 and PIT 1.5 +120. Both on straight bets though. I am thinking on playing Washington +350. My hometown Twins are not playing so great right now and Santana certainly hasnt looked unstoppable. The 350 line seems out of whack.

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Let's say Minnesota played a complete season under these exact conditions. In other words, they are the home team, playing Washington, with the starting pitchers being Speigner and Santana. How many games do you think they would win?

They would have to go a seemingly incredible 126-36 for +/-350 to be a break even line. Honestly, I think they could do it.

Sanatana is awesome. His career winning pct is .700. I would love to see his numbers if he pitched in the NL right now (look out Bob Gibson lol).

The Twins are a good team with a good bullpen. Washington is a terrible team from a bad leage (the NL, which is basically AAAA nowadays).

Speigner is simply horrible, and has no business being in the major leagues right now. In 28.2 innings, he has allowed 44 hits. He has walked 19 batters, compared to 14 Ks. His WHIP is 2.20.

This is about as severe a mismatch as you will see in MLB. A great starting pitcher on a very good team is going up against a minor league lineup with a minor league level starting pitcher (low minors that is).

Just because you can get +350, doesn't automatically make it a +EV bet. Some people here seem to assume that only a sucker would bet on a baseball game laying serious chalk. That's not automatically the case, and I wanted to lay out the opposite view.

As far betting on the Pirates, it was probably a good bet, but only because Clemens couldn't be expected to pitch that well. But depsite the Yankees sub-.500 record, they are still a powerhouse team. They have outscored their opponents at a pretty good clip, and obviously you can just look at their roster to know they are one of the best teams in baseball.

The Pirates are a terrible team, from the worst division of a bad league. The NL Central is so bad this year that it is ridiculous (although the Cubs are probably better than they have shown), and Pittsburgh will still finish with a horrendous record. Tampa Bay might be able to win that division.

I agree that it is absurd to consider Clemens some kind of ace (although in the NL he would be Cy Young material), especially since it is his first game back. That is the only reason I think you guys made a good to OK bet, but I would be very careful about betting on terrible NL teams against AL powerhouses just because you get high odds. The NL really is significantly worse than the AL, and that is the reason for why the lines seem a little extreme.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

I sat thinking along these lines too, with the season having enough games to bet on I decided to just pass and I think projections and systems should be skewed since this is interleague games.
And with a matchup like Santana-Speigner I was curious why everyone seem to like the +1.5 play at +140ish with ML being +350, if I had to choose whether to bet say Cubs, Toronto, Colorado at +140 I'd much rather do that then getting same odds for the worst team in MLB facing the best? pitcher in the MLB away for +1.5, but that's just me.

And the pitching in NL ain't that bad, is it?

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

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And with a matchup like Santana-Speigner I was curious why everyone seem to like the +1.5 play at +140ish with ML being +350

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At the time, the +140 was a favorable line to the non-vig line of approx. +133. Now, the non-vig line is 141, making +140 a negative EV play from a pure non-handicapped line perspective.