It sure feels like he is ready to teach me a lesson....

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Exactly what hand is he calling your flop bet with and then not beating you by river? Even his weaker aces have a 33% chance of holding a spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he calls the flop with pretty much any pair. I think AX, QX, JX, QJ, 22-99, plus any flush draw, or Ks, Ts.

The turn doesnt eliminate anything from his range. I felt pretty strongly that he opens for a raise with AT, so the only real hands I am worried about on the river are KT, QT, JT, T9 (although T9 folds most of the time on the flop, unless he has Ts), and AXs. As for the AXs, I dont know where you came up with 33%, but that isnt right. We know he doesnt have the As, so there are 7 total combos of AX that beat us. That is a VERY small % of the total AX combos possible.

[ QUOTE ]

Bet out on the turn. If raised you can fold rather easiily. If called you may have bought a free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]
-He pretty much knows I dont have a flush draw, since all of the high spades are gone. I can imagine a bad bluff here.
-The showdown isnt free, since I just bet the turn, when I could have gotten to the river for nothing. If I am called on the turn, I can't really imagine folding the river, no matter what falls.
-In my mind, betting the turn ruins our hand value against all but a very very specific range of hands for villan.


I called b/c the spades left just dont fit any hands that call the flop except for the Ts, and AX.

Villan shows Ad6d, Hero wins.

[A_PLUS]

The reason I found this hand interesting, is at first glance, you think "SH#!^%, I am behind the 2s!!" But when you think through the hand you realize how rare it is for him to have a spade here. During the hand, my intuition told me that I was ahead, but when I broke it down afterwards, I realized that I was way ahead. To me it was an extreme example of the importance of putting someone on a range and sticking to it. It is a skill the better players have (especially cash players) that someo of us tournament donks are missing. Too often I feel lost on the river, and am basically guessing what to do, but when I take 10 minutes after the hand, I realize that all of the info I needed was there, I just didnt process it.

[Jurollo]

I like your line Tom. A turn bet isnt good here as it reopens you up to a bigger bet where you are put in a weird spot. Yes you might THINK you have him beat but it is a scary board, essentially the check on the turn and the call on the river accomplish the same thing, getting to SD rather cheaply on a scary board. I like it on every street.
~Justin

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I found this hand interesting, is at first glance, you think "SH#!^%, I am behind the 2s!!" But when you think through the hand you realize how rare it is for him to have a spade here. During the hand, my intuition told me that I was ahead, but when I broke it down afterwards, I realized that I was way ahead. To me it was an extreme example of the importance of putting someone on a range and sticking to it. It is a skill the better players have (especially cash players) that someo of us tournament donks are missing. Too often I feel lost on the river, and am basically guessing what to do, but when I take 10 minutes after the hand, I realize that all of the info I needed was there, I just didnt process it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.. I read this hand and thought that you played it fine and the river was a fold. Then I read ucla's post and I figured I was missing something.

[Jurollo]

Noah,
Would you bet turn?

If so, what amount do you call on this river if played as is?

I only ask because especially with this player type there isnt much difference. If you bet the turn you are setting up a bigger bet to call on the flop if you are ahead anyway which will leave you with less of a chance to take it down. Keeping the pot small here and calling a reasonable river bet, which t666 is, is key in this spot.
~Justin

[NoahSD]

Yeah... I agree. Check turn, call river is solid. I just didn't realize that until I stopped to think about the fact that there aren't many hands with spades in them in villain's range.