50NL 6max AKs What to do Preflop?

[dawade]

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I think the key piece of the puzzle is how he views OP.

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[Peter Harris]

[quoteA guy who is 18/14 is raising a wider range than KK or AA here. The fact that hero has an A or K makes it more likely villain has QQ than AA or KK. The short stack's range is wider than AA and KK here. If you hate variance then fold, but shoving is profitable over the long run.

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QFT

[Poker monkey]

Shoving here when you've been re-raised, and rr is cold-called, for two buy-ins, is not good. No-one's calling a shove (I hope) with AQ or less, and you're slightly less than a coinflip or worse against anything else that calls.

If BB is very loose then shoving is OK, but versus a tight player, folding is not a bad option (in addition to the value of your hand against his range, think reverse implied odds on an Ace or King-high board), although multi-way I wouldn't fault a call too much. This player is a TAG from your stats, and I would give him respect particularly since he's going to be OOP. Risking $100 to win $20 verus an OOP re-raise doesn't seem worth it.

[Speedlimits]

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[quoteA guy who is 18/14 is raising a wider range than KK or AA here. The fact that hero has an A or K makes it more likely villain has QQ than AA or KK. The short stack's range is wider than AA and KK here. If you hate variance then fold, but shoving is profitable over the long run.

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QFT

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Not really.

[Poker monkey]

I prefer making it $25-30 to go here to shoving because it reps a bigger hand, is more likely to get QQ-TT to fold, and you can fold if he shoves.

[Chomp]

Just for kicks...from wide to narrow range for an 18/14:

Hand 0: 57.644% { AcKc }
Hand 1: 42.356% { 88+, ATs+, ATo+ }

Hand 0: 51.646% { AcKc }
Hand 1: 48.354% { TT+, AQs, AQo }

Hand 0: 40.268% { AcKc }
Hand 1: 59.732% { TT+ }

Hand 0: 38.378% { AcKc }
Hand 1: 61.622% { JJ+ }

So surely we are in bad shape against all his, er, range of ranges?

If that's the case, do we need to evaluate FE + dead money and see how they effect the decision? If so, how do we do that?

PokerMonkey - you put in half your stack and consider folding to a push?? That can't be right surely. I also think you have very indeterminate FE over QQ and JJ so it gets very tricky to judge.

Speedlimits - you say in retrospect that calling is best here...but I don't think we have the odds (direct or impled) to call $7 into a $12 pot, and certainly not as you believe the 3b is QQ+ (which will felt on any non-A/K flop, so you only get to see 3 cards). So I'm not sure I see how calling could be right long term (probably even if we throw AQ into his range).

[RunDownHouse]

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PokerMonkey - you put in half your stack and consider folding to a push?? That can't be right surely. I also think you have very indeterminate FE over QQ and JJ so it gets very tricky to judge.

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I thought this right away, but I think he was referring only to this specific case, where we're 60BBs deep. In that case its only a bit under 40% or so of our stack.

[tarheeljks]

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I prefer making it $25-30 to go here to shoving because it reps a bigger hand, is more likely to get QQ-TT to fold, and you can fold if he shoves.

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i like fold/call >> raise b/c given his stats, i don't see this guy having less than queens very often here. even if he is doing this w/TT-QQ we get no money if the flop hits us, unless we have pushed. i think raising is a bad idea b/c we will have committed ourself w/a hand that is probably behind and quite possibly dominated.

[monkeymaps]

I dont know even at 10 and 25 NL where im at I three bet a BTN raise with a wider range than just AA KK and QQ and i run at like 18/12 or so I think push here is ok here as well as just calling IP.

[Poker monkey]

I was thinking we had 200 BB but actually we only have 160, so it's probably not good, particularly since we'd have odds to call vs KK. I don't mind raising to $25 and folding to a shove with 200 BB.... anyway I was just saying I prefer this to shoving, logically my favourite line is to fold, although calling is OK as well so long as you can fold top pair to a lot of action.