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#1
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Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?
[ QUOTE ]
As for the Ac, yes, it could make a flush, but the raising war here might have been between sets. I think 6 outs is pretty close to the correct value. [/ QUOTE ] What about BB who cheerfully called when it was 3-bets back to him on the flop? Someone here has an FD. |
#2
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Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?
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You can fold the turn. [/ QUOTE ] Yep, I think we are too far behind to call 2 on the turn |
#3
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Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?
Flat calling the flop is better imo
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#4
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Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?
Your chances of being ahead on the turn are very slim if your read is good.
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#5
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Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?
UTG (the only Villan after the flop that didn't cool-call preflop) is short-stacked, and Hero's only got 20-30 hands on the table (so we have no idea what sort of interaction there is between the blinds and UTG). Saying you HAVE to fold this turn is ridiculous. Yeah, somebody might have 86 or 63 (and let's not even worry about x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] until a club comes that completes a draw for us), but it could also be plenty of hands that we have up to 9 outs against. To answer the question posited, however, if you _know_ you're beat, you fold when you know it. Duh. I don't know it anywhere in this hand.
That said, if you're going to fold this anywhere, it should be the flop, instead of 3-betting. When it gets to you, you're getting 8:1 and if you put two of your opponents on made hands (sets/straights) and the other 2 on draws (flush and straight), you're on a 1-out draw and you're screwed. |
#6
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Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?
I don't know why you guys think we have to be so sure our outs suck to fold when we're only barely getting pot odds to call against a better hand. Even if we give the full six outs, whoopee, we have .5BB worth of overlay and our implied odds aren't great since we really can't raise the river unless it's the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] . We don't fold to the flop raise because it's one goddamn bet and raise, of course we don't assume we're beat yet, but then when it goes cap flop-lead turn-get raised we have to narrow the hand ranges a lot.
And for people who think there's no club draw out, WTF do you think BB has? "It's microlimits" is not an excuse to completely give up handreading. |
#7
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Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why you guys think we have to be so sure our outs suck to fold when we're only barely getting pot odds to call against a better hand. Even if we give the full six outs, whoopee, we have .5BB worth of overlay and our implied odds aren't great since we really can't raise the river unless it's the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] . We don't fold to the flop raise because it's one goddamn bet and raise, of course we don't assume we're beat yet, but then when it goes cap flop-lead turn-get raised we have to narrow the hand ranges a lot. And for people who think there's no club draw out, WTF do you think BB has? "It's microlimits" is not an excuse to completely give up handreading. [/ QUOTE ] For a lot of people here, handreading comes down to finding a hand we beat and using that as an excuse not to fold. Well, maybe we're right. Maybe sometimes we do have the full six outs. Sadly, all the times we don't, we're paying off with the worst hand on the river anyway, so whoops, we just spent our overlay. And we more or less have to believe that the two villains who are doing the betting and raising have a set each. Maybe they both have top pair and are feeling frisky (but they can't have A7 because we've awarded ourself the ace as an out). We've disqualified either from having a six or a club draw. But what the [censored] is BB calling with? |
#8
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Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?
Im letting this baby go on the turn. Capped, led and raised is enough.
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#9
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Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?
On the turn, we are getting 8.5:1 to call the bet and raise. SB, who has showed nothing but strength, may very likely 3-bet. Our hand is worth about 3 outs. How can we not fold?
I give the hand 3 outs because: Our A outs are worth about 1.5 because of the very likely flush draw out there. They are certainly not worth the full 2 when we have 3 opponents on a board like this. Our inside str8 draw is worth maybe 1.5 outs if we were to be optimistic, usually it is almost worthless. You have to subtract outs from the original 4 because: 1) It is to the idiot end 2) You are using only 1 card 3) You have 3 opponents 4) The double suited flop |
#10
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Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?
i raise the river. we have the other 2 in the hand beat, and UTG is all in
other than that i play it the same. |
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