Live 2/5 NL, turn trips, what are your thoughts?

[bdams19]

so your logic is that you are not betting the flop because when he checks you now know that he has air, a pp that missed, or a monster?

fold pf.

[Big_Jim]

Fold river

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Now the turn comes an Ace, can I profitably bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]
Hell yes you can. A ton of the time, the TAG has crap, and folds, and then the donkey pays you off.

Plus, a bet here can REALLY help to define the TAG's hand.

[CamelZoo]

interesting hand

i'll add my 2c

i've tried to justify pf in my mind - believe me i am as loose as they come, and live my range is vvv wide, but 10xbb utg, one call, i don't love a call unless it's a bit deeper and/or raiser is horrific. but anyways, as played i don't lead on the flop, but when it's checked i like a turn check for the same reasons i checked flop. betting pot like you did doesn't allow your opponents to make egregious errors unless they are on fuming tilt and/or hate you and think you are completely fos. therefore imo chk > weak lead > pot lead

on a fairly dry flop villain was correct to check AA-AJ and played his hand like a monster even after you led on the turn. he is bluffing here in my experience seldom enough to justify a fold on the river.

even if he put you on "taking a stab" on the turn and he's looked you up with TT/JJ/QQ he is not pushing the riv b/c you could v easily c/c an ace on the river, and if he knows anything he knows that your average 2/5 player is not folding an ace in your spot.

[DenGreek]

leading the flop is 100% incorrect for many reasons...in fact if Villain BET this flop I probably would have folded, it's not that hard to do...I didn't get a great flop for my hand.

And those yapping about the 10BB pf call, that was the standard raise pf (playing very large) and I was obviously gambling a little more than usual.

[bdams19]

man if i sound anything like DenGreek when i post hands now i knwo why i dont get good advice

[DenGreek]

Camel,

Thank you for your analysis, I appreciate your thoughts and your reply.

I'd like to point out that I was playing with the villain for a couple of hours, and I am very confident he would have bet the flop with AQ/AJ type hands.

So after eliminating those hands and looking at the board, I figured he has PP here about 60-70% (not far from actual math calc) and that he would fold any PP to a pot sized bet on the turn, making the bet +EV and possibility of stacking fish behind with a Ax type hand (although I had him on garbage, he raised ANY PIECE of the flop regardless of preflop action).

His range on the turn was either boat or PP, and it was a 30/70 mix, so isn't betting the turn the only way to exploit the given villain's range?

[CamelZoo]

i think your average villain in this case here is more likely to bet the flop with a PP or a weak ace than check, and then call a strong bet with such a hand on the turn -- just from what i've seen, but it seems like you have a strong read and that you went with it...

i guess i'm having trouble understanding what villain would have here that you beat if he bets AQ/AJ type hands on the flop. if he is a player who would call turn with a PP, and then bluff into you on the river with a 99-type hand, isn't he going to be betting the flop rather than trying to blow you off your hand on the river? maybe i'm thinking too much

[Proofrock]

I know you aren't interested in preflop, but it's really the worst part of the hand. Once you get to a flop, your stack to pot ratio is less than 3. Practically speaking, there's not enough postflop play available to make calling better than 3betting or folding preflop.

I don't know if you've spent any time playing tournaments, but it's not *that* different to playing a hand where you have a 10BB stack. I can almost gaurantee that you're better off here just folding (my top choice) or pushing.

Calling leaves you OOP with shallow stacks in a multiway pot with an often dominated hand, which is clearly bad.

As for the rest of the hand, it's not too big a deal compared to preflop. If you put any money into the pot you're almost forced to stack off, so you either bet, c/f or c/r the flop. Once you turn trips you need to get all-in. You should push the river because Villain will always push hands that beat you, but will call with more hands that you're ahead of than he will bet on the river (KQ might call your push but will never bet).