Caesars (130.) KTs street by street.

[LuckyLloyd]

We should fold K10s against a nit rasing UTG precisely because of the situation we have got ourselves into on this board. We flopped top - pair on a dry board and do not have a clue where we are and are worried about paying off with the worst hand now that we have hit. If effective stacks were 20,000 a call becomes ok as you will have position and can undoubtably outplay both villains. As it is, the old guy has committed one third of his stack by this point...


As played,I think you have to fold. If he has you beat, it logically looks like a checked top set off the flop, or a sick set of nines. You have seen him bet AK previously after flopping TPTK, and it is unlikely that he is in there with KQ // KJ given his image. The only reservation I have is that a player like that may not find a bet on the turn with QQ to 1010, and might check that flop with AA sometimes. His range in this spot has you crushed tbf, and if you call and he is behind you won't be taking any more money out of him.

So fold.

[Fiksdal]

Interesting hand Cornell. Here are some of my thoughts on it.

Preflop: Easy fold. A nit raised UTG, and the implied odds aren't good enough for you. Position helps a bit, but not nearly enough.

Flop: Interesting spot. The check of the nit confuses me.

[ QUOTE ]

he played good cards and played them very quickly


[/ QUOTE ]

This is crucial. This would imply that the nit is betting this flop with AK/KK/AA every time. So I acually think we can take these hands out of his range.

IMO the nits most likely holdings after he checks the flop are TT/JJ/QQ or AQ. (out of his preflop range UTG which is probably TT+, AQ+.

So actually, I think we are ahead of the nits range on the flop given the read about how he plays strong hands. Hard to tell what BB has, but we are probably ahead of him too. Given theese assumptions we could certainly bet the flop.

However, I see your point that no weaker hands will give us action on this board, which I agree with. I don't really have a problem with letting another card come off on this board, because our position makes it easier for us to keep control. The advantage of checking here is that BB is fairly likely to take a stab with various holdings on the turn. We will easily be ahead of his range in this situation, so that would be nice. Also we will get to see what UTG does then. If he gets involved, we should probably abanadon the ship though. But depending on the turn card, I don't think he will very often, considering his flop check. Given all these advantages, I think checking behind on the flop is a very nice play.

Turn: A relatively blank card, probably hasn't helped any of the hands in UTG's range. Actually 99 could be in his range, maybe I was giving him too much credit for raising UTG. It doesn't change things all that though.

So let's try to figure out what UTG's bet could mean. Assuming he is not a retard or something, and knows some hand reading, he probably thinks nobody has a king since the flop checked around. I think he could very well be betting his QQ/JJ/TT by now. Most players would, and I can't imagine him not doing so.

I think we need to call this turn. We are getting almost 3 to 1, and we have position which will be extremely useful on the river.

Our plan on the river is very dependent on what BB does (he'll probably fold though), and also the river card and how UTG responds to it. I figure there is a great chance he will check though, and then we can probably check behind with plenty of showdown value.

If you did call, I'll be looking forward to the river decision.

[TCA]

Well I think betting the flops makes this hand so much easier but now I would call. If he has QQ-TT he has to bet here and protect his hand, he will doubt you or other player have a K. Obviously if he was slowplaying he also has to bet now to start building the pot.

I would call with the intention of folding the river to a reasonable bet, I have the feeling the river is going to be a K or T though.

[Deadnutz]

Fold pre-flop

Otherwise, I like post-fop play. If you are going to call
an UTG nit raise with K10s, then:

1) you better extract value from hands that you out- flop
2) Lose the min when you are still behind

Checking the flop accomplishes both of these since your
flop check will probably induce a turn bet with QQ, JJ, and 10's.

On the turn, you either have a value bet from KK or AA,
or a feeler/value bet with QQ, JJ, or 10s. (I think this player bets flop with AK). So about a 2 to 1 hand-ratio in your favor. Call the turn.

On the river- I fold to any substantial bet since a nit would rarely fire a 2nd barrel value-bet with QQ, JJ, 10s.

The intersting question becomes when the river blanks and he checks do you value bet? Obviously you can't bet that much since he most likely has an underpair to your K. But I think to make your pre-flop call ok, you need to add some extra value when he checks the river.

[JARID]

Cornell,

call turn. If you're heads up on the river with the old man and he checks I can see making a small v-bet trying to get a call from QQ. Old man bets the river, you're prob pretty f'd so fold.

[LuckyLloyd]

From the description of the villian I don't think he is paying off a value bet on the river. This is a key reason why I think a turn call is bad.

[Cornell Fiji]

Level 4
200/400/25

SB - 8,000
BB - 12,000
UTG - 9,700
Hero has 11,000

Hero has K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the CO.
'The Old Guy' raises to 1200 UTG, Hero Calls, BB calls.

Flop (3800): K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB checks, 'The Old Guy' checks, Hero checks

Turn (3800): 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB checks, Old guy bets 2,000, Hero calls, BB folds.

River (7800): 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Old guy instashoves for 6,500 more; Hero...?


I will give my thoughts on all streets later

[Pat Southern]

Instashove by old nits is usally a bet that doesn't want to get called in my experience, he could definately have AQ or something here and is (as most old nits say) "tired of getting pushed around." I would try to pick a read one way or another and go with it. From your descriptions so far I'd call. Of course I'd be dissapointed when he shows KK or 99 (I dont think he has AK or AA like some have suggested), but then again I would never be in this situation to begin with because the PF call is ugly.

[LuckyLloyd]

I think a hero call of the shove on the river would be pretty bad.

[ghostwriter]

[ QUOTE ]
Instashove by old nits is usally a bet that doesn't want to get called in my experience, he could definately have AQ or something here and is (as most old nits say) "tired of getting pushed around." I would try to pick a read one way or another and go with it. From your descriptions so far I'd call. Of course I'd be dissapointed when he shows KK or 99 (I dont think he has AK or AA like some have suggested), but then again I would never be in this situation to begin with because the PF call is ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't get this analysis. Old guy has seen 3 flops before this hand and he's been the only one showing any aggression this hand, how does that equal, "tired of getting pushed around". From OP's description I don't see how he can ever have AQ here.