Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins

[trapsetter]

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I think this line is well set. I have the Chiefs winning 10 or 11 games this season.

You overlook a couple big positives. First is a very strong improvement in the KC defense, specifically in the secondary with the addition of Ty Law. He fills a major gap - the Chiefs had one corner who was probably the single weakest corner in the NFL last year, solely responsible for almost all big plays they gave up last year.

Second is the sit down of Priest Holmes (placed on the PUP list) which means not only is Larry the man but he'll be the man without having to worry about splitting carries at all. His stats in the second half of the year were absolutely phenominal and there's little reason to think he won't put in the same level of performance.

One big negative you don't mention is the surprise retirement this week of Willie Roaf. He leaves a big hole in the Chiefs line that they certainly will not be able to fill with anyone comprable, despite his physical ailments.

The Chiefs are likely going to be a superbowl contender in the AFC this year, in my opinion. If they can address the Roaf retirement, easily one of the four strongest teams in tbe AFC and from there its only who performs best in the playoffs.

I also think the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule this year. Always tough given that the AFC West is one of the tougher divisions in all of football, but I also don't see that many challenging opponents either.

I see 9-7 as the lowest KC will go this year, even with a very disappointing season. I expect something more like 11-5 or 10-6, with probable losses @Denver, @Pittsburgh, Seattle at home a possiblity (but the Chiefs are a well known powerhouse at home), maybe dropping a game either @Oakland or @San Diego (or possibly both), and possibly a loss at home vs Jacksonville to end the season (especially if they've already got the West wrapped up, which will be a possiblity). If they lose all of those games that's 10-6. If they only drop one on the road between Oakland and Diego, if they beat Seattle at home, that's 11-4 walking in to the last week of the season which is probably good enough to win the West with the parity there, so they may drop Jacksonville at home by resting starters. Hard to look that far in advance obviously.

Which games do you see them dropping to go 8-8?

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FWIW Hank Goldberg was saying basically the same things this week about KC. He said he was seriously thinking about layig money on them to win it all, mostly b/c they were getting like 17-1. If the revamped D can make an impact they are hyped for, i think 10 wins is a lock

And yeah, football is back my friends, finally [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Hank Goldberg is terrible. I've made money going the other way of what he says.

[wiper]

haha, me too!

only tv personality that's worse is chris berman...i remember one year his total was so bad picking 5 games a week, that in week 13 or 14, he gave himself 5 WINS for picking 1 game right!

[freerollin]

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I think this line is well set. I have the Chiefs winning 10 or 11 games this season.

You overlook a couple big positives. First is a very strong improvement in the KC defense, specifically in the secondary with the addition of Ty Law. He fills a major gap - the Chiefs had one corner who was probably the single weakest corner in the NFL last year, solely responsible for almost all big plays they gave up last year.

Second is the sit down of Priest Holmes (placed on the PUP list) which means not only is Larry the man but he'll be the man without having to worry about splitting carries at all. His stats in the second half of the year were absolutely phenominal and there's little reason to think he won't put in the same level of performance.

One big negative you don't mention is the surprise retirement this week of Willie Roaf. He leaves a big hole in the Chiefs line that they certainly will not be able to fill with anyone comprable, despite his physical ailments.

The Chiefs are likely going to be a superbowl contender in the AFC this year, in my opinion. If they can address the Roaf retirement, easily one of the four strongest teams in tbe AFC and from there its only who performs best in the playoffs.

I also think the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule this year. Always tough given that the AFC West is one of the tougher divisions in all of football, but I also don't see that many challenging opponents either.

I see 9-7 as the lowest KC will go this year, even with a very disappointing season. I expect something more like 11-5 or 10-6, with probable losses @Denver, @Pittsburgh, Seattle at home a possiblity (but the Chiefs are a well known powerhouse at home), maybe dropping a game either @Oakland or @San Diego (or possibly both), and possibly a loss at home vs Jacksonville to end the season (especially if they've already got the West wrapped up, which will be a possiblity). If they lose all of those games that's 10-6. If they only drop one on the road between Oakland and Diego, if they beat Seattle at home, that's 11-4 walking in to the last week of the season which is probably good enough to win the West with the parity there, so they may drop Jacksonville at home by resting starters. Hard to look that far in advance obviously.

Which games do you see them dropping to go 8-8?

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FWIW Hank Goldberg was saying basically the same things this week about KC. He said he was seriously thinking about layig money on them to win it all, mostly b/c they were getting like 17-1. If the revamped D can make an impact they are hyped for, i think 10 wins is a lock

And yeah, football is back my friends, finally [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Hank Goldberg is terrible. I've made money going the other way of what he says.

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hey i never said the hammer was any good, i was just saying that he was saying almost the same things verbatum that our good moderator was about the chiefs. i'm just wondering if i want any chiefs on my fantasy team this year b/c i know i'm not getting LJ as i will be tossing him out early in our auction draft to cripple someone's BR

[rawl316]

I believe the chiefs signed Ty Law just recently. Their starting DB's are top notch, with Law and Surtain.

[Thremp]

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i'm just wondering if i want any chiefs on my fantasy team this year b/c i know i'm not getting LJ as i will be tossing him out early in our auction draft to give someone 2000+ yards and 20+ TDs

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[Punker]

I think its ok. Here's my take:

5 games where they certainly would be a prohibitive favorite: SF, AZ, Oak, Clev, Oak.
3 games where they would be a small to medium favorite: StLou, Mia, Balt
4 other games where they are at worst small underdogs: Cincy, San Diego, San Diego, Jacksonville (I'm discounting San Diego this year due to the QB change).
4 games where they are decided underdogs: Denver, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Denver (not taking into account how they usually roll Denver).

So, lets say they 4/5 the big favorite games, 2/3 the small favorite games, 2/4 the small underdog games, and 1/4 the big dog games.

There's 9 wins.

[Artdogg]

I agree with performity 100% pretty much, at times last year they were scary good, and as of right now would bet the over.

edit: also they were 3-3 without Roaf last year, and it is a big loss, but theres a big difference between starting a year prepared to be without a player then losing him midseason

[natedogg]

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I think its ok. Here's my take:

5 games where they certainly would be a prohibitive favorite: SF, AZ, Oak, Clev, Oak.


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If they lay more than 4 at Oakland you should take Oak. I would be shocked if they are considered prohibitive favorites in Oak.


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3 games where they would be a small to medium favorite: StLou, Mia, Balt

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There is no way they should be a favorite in Miami, given what we know now. It's hard to to know how things will shake out by November but at this point Miami has to be the favorite.

Both Baltimore and KC are teams with a lot of question marks. A first-year coach in KC is something to watch out for. Sometimes it works out well but often it takes the team a year to gel under the new coach's scheme. Baltimore has a new QB who also happens to be paired up with his old receiver that he made all his numbers with. Baltimore may come together or fall apart it's just too hard to say.

Losing Willie Roaf is pretty huge. Everyone underestimates the impact of good 0-linemen. They change everything for a team. And a bad line changes everything for the worse. They definitely underperformed in the rungame while Roaf was injured.

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4 other games where they are at worst small underdogs: Cincy, San Diego, San Diego, Jacksonville (I'm discounting

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Agreed. These lines will not break 3 either way I think.


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4 games where they are decided underdogs: Denver, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Denver (not taking into account how they usually roll Denver).

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I only agree with Pitt here. Otherwise they should be close dogs or even a favorite at home vs. Denver.

Overall, I would definitely not be the over 9.5. It may not be a good bet to go with the under but it is certainly a bad bet to expect ten wins from any team in the AFC West, with a new coach, and a missing hall-of-famer guard, and interdivision road games at Miami, Pitt, St. Louis.

Thank god football is back.

natedogg

[Punker]

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If they lay more than 4 at Oakland you should take Oak

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What has Oakland done to improve their team markedly from last year, when they lost 8 of their last 9 and finished 4-12? Aaron Brooks? Come on.

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There is no way they should be a favorite in Miami, given what we know now.

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I don't know if I agree with this. Culpepper certainly has to prove something before I'll consider him a huge upgrade at QB, and I'm worried Brown may hit the wall now that he has no second RB to help and Saban is sure to run him into the ground (similar to how Cadillac did last year).

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Both Baltimore and KC are teams with a lot of question marks

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Baltimore has a lot more question marks than KC in my mind. McNair is coming off a pretty ugly season, and I wouldn't want to put my franchise in the hands of an injury prone QB who is now old to boot.

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they should be close dogs or even a favorite at home vs. Denver

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That's probably fair. I didn't account for the home dominance over Denver because I just don't understand it.

I don't, however, see why they wouldn't be decided underdogs to Seattle.

[Artdogg]

they will be favorites at home against Seattle unless they start off badly, maybe small favorites, but still a favorite