Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins
 

What do people think of this idea? Outside of Johnson, who is clearly a stud, this offense is way over the hill. How well are they going to respond to a new head coach and new offensive coordinator. The Chiefs defense was not good last year and is unlikely to improve much. Finally, they have a brutal schedule.

I see Kansas City going 7-9 this year, maybe 6-10, with 8-8 as the ceiling. If they win 9, which I can't see happening barring serious luck, you STILL win the bet.

This looks like a really strong play to me.

Thoughts?

Re: Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins
 

I think this line is well set. I have the Chiefs winning 10 or 11 games this season.

You overlook a couple big positives. First is a very strong improvement in the KC defense, specifically in the secondary with the addition of Ty Law. He fills a major gap - the Chiefs had one corner who was probably the single weakest corner in the NFL last year, solely responsible for almost all big plays they gave up last year.

Second is the sit down of Priest Holmes (placed on the PUP list) which means not only is Larry the man but he'll be the man without having to worry about splitting carries at all. His stats in the second half of the year were absolutely phenominal and there's little reason to think he won't put in the same level of performance.

One big negative you don't mention is the surprise retirement this week of Willie Roaf. He leaves a big hole in the Chiefs line that they certainly will not be able to fill with anyone comprable, despite his physical ailments.

The Chiefs are likely going to be a superbowl contender in the AFC this year, in my opinion. If they can address the Roaf retirement, easily one of the four strongest teams in tbe AFC and from there its only who performs best in the playoffs.

I also think the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule this year. Always tough given that the AFC West is one of the tougher divisions in all of football, but I also don't see that many challenging opponents either.

I see 9-7 as the lowest KC will go this year, even with a very disappointing season. I expect something more like 11-5 or 10-6, with probable losses @Denver, @Pittsburgh, Seattle at home a possiblity (but the Chiefs are a well known powerhouse at home), maybe dropping a game either @Oakland or @San Diego (or possibly both), and possibly a loss at home vs Jacksonville to end the season (especially if they've already got the West wrapped up, which will be a possiblity). If they lose all of those games that's 10-6. If they only drop one on the road between Oakland and Diego, if they beat Seattle at home, that's 11-4 walking in to the last week of the season which is probably good enough to win the West with the parity there, so they may drop Jacksonville at home by resting starters. Hard to look that far in advance obviously.

Which games do you see them dropping to go 8-8?

Re: Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins
 

Roaf is a huge loss.

If I recall he's their second best if not their best lineman.

Re: Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins
 

It is a big loss, for sure. But Roaf did miss six games last year so he wasn't exactly around all season.

But the Chiefs had arguably one of the best lines in the NFL last year, an and they'll still be one of the top even without Roaf.

They signed Kyle Turley in the off season, he's expected to fill Roaf's position. They also have Jordan Black (5th round pick in 2003 out of Notre Dame), and Kevin Sampson (7th round pick out of Syracuse in 2004)

... man i can't wait for football. just starting my season research and starting to talk it is making me [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins
 

What was their record in the 6 games Roaf missed?

Re: Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins
 

I think its ok. Here's my take:

5 games where they certainly would be a prohibitive favorite: SF, AZ, Oak, Clev, Oak.
3 games where they would be a small to medium favorite: StLou, Mia, Balt
4 other games where they are at worst small underdogs: Cincy, San Diego, San Diego, Jacksonville (I'm discounting San Diego this year due to the QB change).
4 games where they are decided underdogs: Denver, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Denver (not taking into account how they usually roll Denver).

So, lets say they 4/5 the big favorite games, 2/3 the small favorite games, 2/4 the small underdog games, and 1/4 the big dog games.

There's 9 wins.

Re: Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins
 

I agree with performity 100% pretty much, at times last year they were scary good, and as of right now would bet the over.

edit: also they were 3-3 without Roaf last year, and it is a big loss, but theres a big difference between starting a year prepared to be without a player then losing him midseason

Re: Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this line is well set. I have the Chiefs winning 10 or 11 games this season.

You overlook a couple big positives. First is a very strong improvement in the KC defense, specifically in the secondary with the addition of Ty Law. He fills a major gap - the Chiefs had one corner who was probably the single weakest corner in the NFL last year, solely responsible for almost all big plays they gave up last year.

Second is the sit down of Priest Holmes (placed on the PUP list) which means not only is Larry the man but he'll be the man without having to worry about splitting carries at all. His stats in the second half of the year were absolutely phenominal and there's little reason to think he won't put in the same level of performance.

One big negative you don't mention is the surprise retirement this week of Willie Roaf. He leaves a big hole in the Chiefs line that they certainly will not be able to fill with anyone comprable, despite his physical ailments.

The Chiefs are likely going to be a superbowl contender in the AFC this year, in my opinion. If they can address the Roaf retirement, easily one of the four strongest teams in tbe AFC and from there its only who performs best in the playoffs.

I also think the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule this year. Always tough given that the AFC West is one of the tougher divisions in all of football, but I also don't see that many challenging opponents either.

I see 9-7 as the lowest KC will go this year, even with a very disappointing season. I expect something more like 11-5 or 10-6, with probable losses @Denver, @Pittsburgh, Seattle at home a possiblity (but the Chiefs are a well known powerhouse at home), maybe dropping a game either @Oakland or @San Diego (or possibly both), and possibly a loss at home vs Jacksonville to end the season (especially if they've already got the West wrapped up, which will be a possiblity). If they lose all of those games that's 10-6. If they only drop one on the road between Oakland and Diego, if they beat Seattle at home, that's 11-4 walking in to the last week of the season which is probably good enough to win the West with the parity there, so they may drop Jacksonville at home by resting starters. Hard to look that far in advance obviously.

Which games do you see them dropping to go 8-8?

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW Hank Goldberg was saying basically the same things this week about KC. He said he was seriously thinking about layig money on them to win it all, mostly b/c they were getting like 17-1. If the revamped D can make an impact they are hyped for, i think 10 wins is a lock

And yeah, football is back my friends, finally [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this line is well set. I have the Chiefs winning 10 or 11 games this season.

You overlook a couple big positives. First is a very strong improvement in the KC defense, specifically in the secondary with the addition of Ty Law. He fills a major gap - the Chiefs had one corner who was probably the single weakest corner in the NFL last year, solely responsible for almost all big plays they gave up last year.

Second is the sit down of Priest Holmes (placed on the PUP list) which means not only is Larry the man but he'll be the man without having to worry about splitting carries at all. His stats in the second half of the year were absolutely phenominal and there's little reason to think he won't put in the same level of performance.

One big negative you don't mention is the surprise retirement this week of Willie Roaf. He leaves a big hole in the Chiefs line that they certainly will not be able to fill with anyone comprable, despite his physical ailments.

The Chiefs are likely going to be a superbowl contender in the AFC this year, in my opinion. If they can address the Roaf retirement, easily one of the four strongest teams in tbe AFC and from there its only who performs best in the playoffs.

I also think the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule this year. Always tough given that the AFC West is one of the tougher divisions in all of football, but I also don't see that many challenging opponents either.

I see 9-7 as the lowest KC will go this year, even with a very disappointing season. I expect something more like 11-5 or 10-6, with probable losses @Denver, @Pittsburgh, Seattle at home a possiblity (but the Chiefs are a well known powerhouse at home), maybe dropping a game either @Oakland or @San Diego (or possibly both), and possibly a loss at home vs Jacksonville to end the season (especially if they've already got the West wrapped up, which will be a possiblity). If they lose all of those games that's 10-6. If they only drop one on the road between Oakland and Diego, if they beat Seattle at home, that's 11-4 walking in to the last week of the season which is probably good enough to win the West with the parity there, so they may drop Jacksonville at home by resting starters. Hard to look that far in advance obviously.

Which games do you see them dropping to go 8-8?

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW Hank Goldberg was saying basically the same things this week about KC. He said he was seriously thinking about layig money on them to win it all, mostly b/c they were getting like 17-1. If the revamped D can make an impact they are hyped for, i think 10 wins is a lock

And yeah, football is back my friends, finally [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hank Goldberg is terrible. I've made money going the other way of what he says.

Re: Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins
 

haha, me too!

only tv personality that's worse is chris berman...i remember one year his total was so bad picking 5 games a week, that in week 13 or 14, he gave himself 5 WINS for picking 1 game right!