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#21
10-04-2007, 12:09 PM
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Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
I really think a 15/11 has a set or overpair here almost always. I haven't seen this guy show down many sc's in raised pots and I think he 3 bets me always with AdKd. I could see him thinking I'm fos and making a stand with an overpair, but this is exactly how he would play a set as well imo.
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#22
10-04-2007, 12:22 PM
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Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
I come from full ring within the last year and I sometimes still find myself playing this tight.
When I'm playing this way, here's my range- 33, 44, 66 -- Most likely (explain no reraise... and no slowplay because of draws) -- this is a big part of the range With the button, depending on the opponent and stacksizes, you will find hands like 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Since the relevent players have +100bb, these would be in my range here. I would raise these and be willing to get them all in nearly always. AK or AQ suited - sometimes I reraise pf sometimes not. I would mostly raise the flop with these, sometimes not. If I had QQ/KK/AA I most likely would have reraised you PF. Oftentimes with JJ as well. I'm not likely raising you post flop with 77-1010... I think these are not that likely. I'm not trying to play huge pots with pocket 99s. That's my 2 cents filtered, obviously, by what it means to me to play that tight. I should add-- I sometimes raise here with 55 too, if I think the original aggressor has the power to fold... but since I have position, I often smoothcall and see what happens on the turn.
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#23
10-04-2007, 12:27 PM
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Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
I probably just fold on the theory that calling creates too many opportunities to make major mistakes later in the hand (e.g. we c/f a scarecard and he valuebets TT).
A lot of these guys with nitty PF stats play very aggro postflop, or play very straightforward against fish and very aggro against regs. However, if you haven't seen this guy do anything noteworthy over 200+ hands, I think folding is fine. If I decide to continue here, I'm probably calling and shoving blank turns.
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#24
10-04-2007, 01:04 PM
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Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] a CRAI on the turn would be ugly. [/ QUOTE ] Why? I think thats the line I gravitate to here (assuming turn isn't a diamond), if i'm not folding. Gets max value out of other overpairs, probably forces a semibluff to bet a second time on the turn when his equity sucks, I think. Loses no more than pushing on the flop if we are already behind to a set. And gives villain some slack to hang himself if he decided to [censored] with you because he knows he is a 15/11 in your PT and that you are supposed to be folding to this raise. But i'm far from confident, moreover curious. Please elaborate. [/ QUOTE ] OP said himself that villian is ABC straight forward. IMO there is no way villian fires the turn w/ like 99 or somethin. If he is firing the turn (any turn but A obv) I think we are almost always behind. With those mid PPs i think villian gets scared if we call the flop not only b/c his hand isnt that strong but also there are tons of cards that can hit on the turn that should be scare cards. And once again if he fires those turns we are def behind and our c/r becomes a bluff b/c the CALLING range of a nit on the turn def has us beat. I agree his range includes sets and a few overpairs maybe draws(less likely i think) but given that it is 3 handed and we cbet OOP i think a nitty villian is more likely to raise a set than say 99 here. If we push the flop once again i think villians CALLIN range is narrow (not as narrow as turn) and that kinda just turns our hand into a bluff. Callin just puts us in a tough spot OOP where we are gona check most the time and hope he checks behind which i dont think he is doin often enough. All these ideas come to mind when i think of a STRAIGHT FORWARD 15/11 nitty villian but maybe im wrong??
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#25
10-04-2007, 02:12 PM
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Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
Our Equity Versus Opponents Ranges (assuming we both go all-in):
Effective remaining stack: $48 Pot Size: $28.5 1) Opponent only does this with sets: AhAs --> 10.281% 66,44-33 --> 89.719% Our EV: -$35.20 2) Opponent does this with straight+nut flush draw: AhAs --> 35.567% 66-33,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd --> 64.433% Our EV: -$3.72 3) Opponent does this with sets + JJ AhAs --> 41.30% JJ,66,44-33 --> 58.70% Our EV: +$3.42 4) Opponent does this with sets/JJ + draws: AhAs --> 48.632% JJ,66-33,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd --> 51.368% Our EV: +$12.55 I'm a protective nit so I'd 90% fold this. However, I think you need more of a read than he's a 15/11 pre-flop to say this is a clear fold. Does opponent go all-in with overs on boards with draws? What's our image been, could he finally have something and be happy to raise us? If he only does this with draws and sets we're -EV to mess with him, however, like others have said if he would do this with even just one over pair and go all-in then we should put everything in the middle. I think fold or all-in, either play could be justified against our only read of 15/11 pre-flop. I'm going with fold unless we have aggressive post-flop image, then I'm looking to get it all-in.
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#26
10-04-2007, 02:39 PM
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Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
[ QUOTE ]
I really think a 15/11 has a set or overpair here almost always. I haven't seen this guy show down many sc's in raised pots and I think he 3 bets me always with AdKd. I could see him thinking I'm fos and making a stand with an overpair, but this is exactly how he would play a set as well imo. [/ QUOTE ] AZ, I think your reasoning is solid. It's truly a tough spot. Here's what I think it comes down to: Stack sizes relative to pot size...if you call this there are plenty of cards that can cause you further headaches and it becomes sooooo much more difficult to fold after calling on the turn. If you arent sure where you are right now You TRULY will not know on the turn. In This hand the flop is the point of maximum pressure. I believe you have a fold or push decision right here, right now
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#27
10-04-2007, 05:35 PM
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Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
WTF at folding.
He is/could be raising all pocket pairs on this flop, maybe not 22, but raising with 22 here is fine too. depending on his flop aggresion, he might be raising any pair, any 8+ out draw. Something important here is your image. Are you seen as loose? Seen as tight? Any semi thinking player realizes over 50% of your range totally bricked that flop. UTG already checked, so more likely than not he's just folding. The only question is how to extract the max. I'm leaning towards a call and a turn c/r AI. If he bets about 15-20 on the turn, it should make for an easy push. Now if you told me his postflop aggresion is like .5, I'll consider folding here.
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#28
10-04-2007, 06:20 PM
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Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
[ QUOTE ]
WTF at folding. He is/could be raising all pocket pairs on this flop, maybe not 22, but raising with 22 here is fine too. depending on his flop aggresion, he might be raising any pair, any 8+ out draw. Something important here is your image. Are you seen as loose? Seen as tight? Any semi thinking player realizes over 50% of your range totally bricked that flop. UTG already checked, so more likely than not he's just folding. The only question is how to extract the max. I'm leaning towards a call and a turn c/r AI. If he bets about 15-20 on the turn, it should make for an easy push. Now if you told me his postflop aggresion is like .5, I'll consider folding here. [/ QUOTE ] A 15/11 does not strike me as the kind of player who's playing back stongly here with a pair of 2s or most mid pairs. Though its true they could be playing back if they viewed OP as being out of line, we've been given no such information. I think you overestimate how often a player that tight is raising that flop.
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