A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
we need to ask, will a bet on the flop take this down >25% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd say it probably wouldn't take it down 2.5% of the time. Check auto-fold and wait for the next bus.

[Buzz-cp]

[ QUOTE ]
hmm sry im obv not being clear enough.

we are betting this flop with the belief that the other players will ALL fold > ~22%

turn and river wont matter because chances are very high that we arent putting any more money in regardless of what falls (outside of a 6 or ss)

[/ QUOTE ]

this is like asking to bet ATC here which I wouldn't do either.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

ATC?

also marchron et al, i could well be wrong here. against 2 im probably right tho

[Bilgefisher]

I would think a flop bet is two pronged. I don't really like c-bets into 4 opponents that often, but if they are checking through the flop, 1 bet here might allow you to see the river for free. 2 streets for 1 sb bet. I do agree that doesn't allows work either, but I would try it in this hand.

[OziBattler]

[ QUOTE ]
we are betting this flop with the belief that the other players will ALL fold > ~22%

[/ QUOTE ]
agree with it being the last monies we put in if called but ultimately I just dont think we taking it down enough of stipulated time.

take free card and turn a set obv

[milesdyson]

they dont have random hands but its still a flop check.

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
btw fret, i don't mind PF if we're on a loose table, in fact unless I'm pretty confident i'd get it HU if raised I've got no problems with a limp.

As played i don't think I'd even bother betting here at all, just take the free card, & fold turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the G.I.B. said Fred(t). All of it.

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
I would think a flop bet is two pronged. I don't really like c-bets into 4 opponents that often, but if they are checking through the flop, 1 bet here might allow you to see the river for free. 2 streets for 1 sb bet. I do agree that doesn't allows work either, but I would try it in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This wouldn't be a cbet since we didn't pfr if that means anything to you Bilgey.

[Xhad]

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OK you bettors, what happens when we get called?

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG calls I'm betting any turn card.

If TAG calls, or if more than one opponent calls I'm done unless I get lucky on the turn/river.

If LAG calls it's probably a check on any turn, though a case could be made for bet/folding if it isn't a spade.

While it may be correct to check the flop their hands are worse than random. Most of the time if either of the blinds want this pot they would have bet (if I'm wrong about this then it's definitely a check).

[TarHeel100]

This is a small pot. I'm checking, taking a free card, then folding when I miss my set on the turn.