5/10 - flopped bottom set

[pocketjesuits]

The preflop raiser (MP2) is a donkey who will go to the felt with an overpair. Button is a solid winning regular (22/12) who most likely has the same read on MP2 that I do.

MP2 has a half stack ($500) and hero and button are both about $1000 behind.


Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $40</font>, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($210, 5 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets $175</font>, MP3 folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ????</font>

[Yeti]

I would call, and check the turn. I don't think it's debatable.

[pocketjesuits]

You don't consider a fold?

The preflop raiser has pretty much advertised that he has an overpair and button is still interested in playing for his stack. Button's not playing AA/KK this way, and I don't think 85s is very likely. I suppose JJ/QQ are possibilities but I think he reraises QQ preflop quite often - it seems like 88/55 to me.

I should have also added that there wasn't much hesitation in Button's flop call.

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I would call, and check the turn. I don't think it's debatable.

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It certainly is debatable.

I would throw in a pot-bulding raise because

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The preflop raiser (MP2) is a donkey who will go to the felt with an overpair.

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I hate to let him get away from this with his 99-QQ when an overcard falls.

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You don't consider a fold?

The preflop raiser has pretty much advertised that he has an overpair and button is still interested in playing for his stack. Button's not playing AA/KK this way, and I don't think 85s is very likely. I suppose JJ/QQ are possibilities but I think he reraises QQ preflop quite often - it seems like 88/55 to me.

I should have also added that there wasn't much hesitation in Button's flop call.

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I'm almost never folding fearing set over set (and I'm pretty confident that that isn't a huge leak, if it's one at all). And if I am, it certainly won't be to the action that occurred on this flop.

[Yeti]

pocketjesuits,

Please don't fold here.


KramerTM,

When you call the pot is $735 on the turn and MP2 has $285 left. I'd imagine he is putting it in on any turn with those hands 95% of the time, as well as many other holdings. This way you get to try and eke out more money from the button.

[pocketjesuits]

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I'm almost never folding fearing set over set (and I'm pretty confident that that isn't a huge leak, if it's one at all).

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Me neither, and that's why i'm wondering if I should start considering it.

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And if I am, it certainly won't be to the action that occurred on this flop.

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Why not? This flop is incredibly dry, yet button has just called a pot-sized bet knowing full well that the rest of the money is going in on the turn.

What could he realistically have here that I beat?

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pocketjesuits,

Please don't fold here.


KramerTM,

When you call the pot is $735 on the turn and MP2 has $285 left. I'd imagine he is putting it in on any turn with those hands 95% of the time, as well as many other holdings. This way you get to try and eke out more money from the button.

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So what are the intentions of your call? To trap Button?

[Yeti]

pocketjesuit,

99, TT, JJ.

You call MP2 a donkey. Why are you so sure he has an overpair here?

[Yeti]

KramerTM,

Yes.