Winning Player Losing Badly and Needs Advice

[m3dude]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
also obviously doesnt have to be one night. it's not that weird to have a couple of unlucky small 3 buyin losses in a row really. and it usually doesn't take that long to win it back either. but that goes back to what i said earlier in the thread about variance affecting you more the less you play. and i'm not trying to derail the thread cos 40 buyins is absurd.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if you can have 10-15 10 buyin downswings over a a 100K period and you are a 5-7ptbb winner over a huge sample, why is it extremely unlikely to have 4 of those 10 buyin downswings in a row.

I guess it gets progressively less likely the bigger the downswing, but if you take a big group of winning players that routinely have 10 buyin downswings is not reasonably feasable for one of them to have a 40 buying downswing.

Variance is a bitch.

[/ QUOTE ]

it doesnt get less likely. if u are on a 10 buyin downswing, u have the exact same chance to go on another one from that point. what happens in the past is completely irrelevant in calculating odds for the future.