holla? or not?

[wheelz]

am i wrong for thinking overbetting here might be more likely to get looked up than a normal value-ish sized bet? he has to know that his hand looks a lot like Ax to you, if you're going to try to bluff him based on the fact that he has to know that you know what he has, the overbet looks a lot like "please fold your marginal hand" whereas a value bet looks like "please call with it" and therefore might be more effective vs a thinking player since you two have no history at this point.

or maybe since he's unknown we're not really assuming he's a thinking player and you're just hoping that's too much money for him to call with just an Ax or pp.