PS 5/10 FR. I don't like it, do you?

[Big_Jim]

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Why would he bet a pair smaller than Q's? Maybe so he can make a better hand fold?

You just said its an easy fold, so it must be a good bet if the guy has 88

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Hero is representing air, why wouldn't he just take his showdown?

[JiffyPop100]

How is hero repping air? It looks to me like he has exactly what he has. A pocket pair that is afraid of the King.

Alot of villains would check behind on the turn with a K so hero would bet the river as evidenced by several posters saying to bet the river.

I doubt anyone is going to check / call the turn and river here with QQ, and there are no draws, so why not check behind with a K.

So I think based on the action, villain can have a K or a smaller pair when he bets the river.

Not too mention the fact that alot of people could bet this river and not know if its a value bet or a bluff.

If I was vliian with 88, I would probably bet the turn and if I had a K I would check the turn and bet (or raise) the river.

[Big_Jim]

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How is hero repping air?

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He raised PF, bet the flop, and then checked twice....

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It looks to me like he has exactly what he has.

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lol?

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Alot of villains would check behind on the turn with a K so hero would bet the river as evidenced by several posters saying to bet the river.

I doubt anyone is going to check / call the turn and river here with QQ, and there are no draws, so why not check behind with a K.

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YOU REALLY THINK SO???!??!?!??!!?

WHY DIDN'T I THINK OF THIS?!?

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So I think based on the action, villain can have a K or a smaller pair when he bets the river.

Not too mention the fact that alot of people could bet this river and not know if its a value bet or a bluff.


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If you are betting with 88 here, it had better be as a bluff, because you are almost never getting looked up by a worse hand.

Why you would try to run a bluff when your opponent's most likely hand is air is beyond me.

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If I was vliian with 88, I would probably bet the turn and if I had a K I would check the turn and bet (or raise) the river.

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So a fold is correct vs. you? Cool.

[JiffyPop100]

I agree that Im not getting called by a worse hand, but why do I just want to showdown the hand if I have 88.

If he has a higher pair I lose. If he has air, I win.

If i bet the river and he has air I still win and if he has a higher pair than me, I win at least half the time, probably more. So if I bet less than the pot, its a +EV play.

[Big_Jim]

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I agree that Im not getting called by a worse hand, but why do I just want to showdown the hand if I have 88.

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Because you almost always have the best hand, and a bet has no value.

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If he has a higher pair I lose. If he has air, I win.

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P(air) >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>> P(higher pair)

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If i bet the river and he has air I still win and if he has a higher pair than me, I win at least half the time, probably more. So if I bet less than the pot, its a +EV play.

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You have to assign some percentages, here, to really justify this.

If villain has a worse hand than us 80% of the time, which I think is reasonable, then our EV of checking is 0.8*285 = $228.

If we bet, and he never check/raise bluffs us:

Let X = percent of the time he folds a better hand.

Then we win:
$285 * 0.8 = $228 when we have him beat
$285 * 0.2 * X = $57X

And we lose:
$230 * 0.2 * (1-X) = $46 - $46X

So: $57X = $46 - $46X
$103X = $46
X = 45%

So he has to be willing to check/fold a hand better than ours 45% of the time for a bet to be better than a check. Noting that the first two people said they would call, and that I think that most people would probably call, if they underrepped their hand like this, I think it's a pretty awful bluff.

As your pair gets lower, it becomes a bit more appealing, since there are more hands that can be bluffed out, but I just don't see most people making a bluff like this, with a hand that is probably good.

[JiffyPop100]

Very nice post.

[Darkfolder]

I think b/f is waaay better than c/c in this spot and I even like c/f more than c/c. If Villain was floating the flop he probably should had bet the turn so I think Villain has some sort of hand here and a Kx is absolutely a possible holding. Maybe Villain will sometimes bet a pair lower than QQ but the majority of time I think we will see three kings here when we call.