What to do with this AA against a big turn bet?

[jfletcher]

By the way, this was a $1.5K buyin at the WSOP.

Seems to me that decreases the chance that villain is betting a weak, one pair, hand here. He doesn't want to bust early and his bet looks like it wants a call.

I would also think that if he did have a semi-bluff type hand (like 75, flopped oesd, picked up a pair on the turn), he'd want to push the turn to maximize his folding equity.

[Larude]

This guy must pay 200 to try to stack you. I think that is a long way for suited connector, certainly for a suited one gapper getting 1:15. It certainly looks like he is calling with a small pair or midpair. Tournament with a high payin almost no one is going to mess around with Kx after a raise. Besides there is a good point that with KQ a raise from the CO to get it HU is def. a more logical move. I can't see why a guy with KQ wouldn't raise that preflop on the CO, but would call a raise with it, makes no sense at all!!!

Playing this flop you are either WA/WB and you are OOP so for starters I would check here and see what this guy does; the flop is pretty dry. If he has a set he might check behind fearing you had JJ or QQ-AQ-TT and hit nothing. If he has a K or a midpair i think he will probe bet here, which you ofcourse will call. He might bet with his sets also, no problem. Then on the turn I would check to him again, if he checks, I would valuebet the river, if he bets again I would call again; on the river then either block or check again. With no reads I would be very cautious especially when you know I HAVE it, but are my aces get cracked... As played everything comes to the point do I see him as a decent player or not? I would give him credit as long as I have not seen otherwise and lay it down (although we all think push push and then afterwards we say yeah I knew he had to have a set).

[jfletcher]

Larude, I see no reason to check this flop. I raised before the flop and I have every reason to believe I have the best hand on the flop.

It's when he calls me on a relatively drawless board that red flags need to go up a bit.

I suppose checking the turn might be a reasonable play, but I don't want to open the door for him to make a big bluff that is goign to knock me off the winning hand. I want to still show that I'm strong, so that if he then raises me, I know (or at least, I think I know) that he is very strong.

In short, I feel like my flop and turn bets were correct. I just want to know what my response should be to his turn raise.

[jfletcher]

Since it seems like no one else wants to take a crack at this...

This was Event 27 of the WSOP, $1.5K NLHE. It was the 6th hand.

I pushed my last 1600 in after villain raised the turn. He insta-called and showed 54s (bottom pair on the flop, 2 pair on the turn). I had 8 outs (2 As, 3 Ks, 3 6s), but I missed 'em all on the river and busted.

Although it sounds like some of you here would have played it the same, I still felt like a real dummy. Although it's possible he could have been raising with one pair or a draw on the turn, that's really much more difficult to buy than him having 2 pair or a set.

I could have folded there with 1600 and been OK (still level 1, blinds 25-50).

If anyone wants to try to convince me that my play wasn't stupid, I appreciate it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Larude]

[ QUOTE ]
Larude, I see no reason to check this flop. I raised before the flop and I have every reason to believe I have the best hand on the flop.

It's when he calls me on a relatively drawless board that red flags need to go up a bit.

I suppose checking the turn might be a reasonable play, but I don't want to open the door for him to make a big bluff that is goign to knock me off the winning hand. I want to still show that I'm strong, so that if he then raises me, I know (or at least, I think I know) that he is very strong.

In short, I feel like my flop and turn bets were correct. I just want to know what my response should be to his turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed you have every reason to believe you have the best hand. But if you fear a bluff as you say so that means that it is even more likely that it is better to check first. With only one pair it is almost mandatory to check somewhere down the road if called on a rainbowboard. If you are strong as your aces are you could also pretend to be weak to get people betting into you + if you are behind you are not losing so much. I rather begin checking the flop, if you bet and he calls you either have to slowdown by betting less(which opens the door for a bluff), or you have to check the turn, which also vains or indicates weakness and they may bet big... If you bet and he folds you gained nothing, you have to take some risk and give him freecards in other to ship te money in. I really like my line here with AA OOP.

[Larude]

Moreover if you check/call down the road and people are watching they see that you are capable of checking with a really big hand and won't take a shot at you randomly if you check.

[Dave D]

I think the only thing I do differently is bet like 400 on the flop. It probably doesn't matter, but half the pot is weak IMO.

The only alternative on the turn is to c/r AI. You gotta be confident villian is going to bet the turn though, and I think we can say he will given the previous action.
Sorry about results, it happens. You played it fine.

[jfletcher]

Larude, I think I like your line better with a flopped set than just top pair. I'm not going to want to see a big bet from villain under any circumstances, and if I encourage him to bluff me, that just makes things more complicated.

Also, I think a check is better with position. For example, if the hand was the same but I had position, I might check behind on the turn.

Still interested to hear what others think of this hand.

[jfletcher]

Anyone else?