Move over Curtains!!! (My Blog)

[sergsz]

Jman,
I think your assertion that a 50% reduction in "edge" leads to a more than 50% reduction in ROI is accurate and very perceptive. However, for your assertion to have practical value, it would also have to be true that players could accurately estimate their edge (or change in edge) based simply on "feel." I don't think that this is actually the case. I could say that I feel I have a slightly smaller edge in Speeds than in Regulars, but if I try to say that this reduction in edge is 40% or 50% or whatever based simply on feel, I am likely talking out of my ass. The only way to accurately quantitatively assess the difference in edge between two formats is to play a large sample size of each and compare the ROIs. At which point, ZSROI stops being a useful concept because because normal ROI is sufficient for determining which format is more profitable.

[Jman28]

sergsz,

I agree with the majority of your post. We probably cannot correctly estimate our ROIs in new levels before acquiring a decent sample size. But that won't stop people from guessing. I know many players who are playing now and have to decide to play either speeds or regulars or this level or that, based entirely on their perceptions.

[Blaze_n_Play]

Jman, as a fellow wisconsinite (living in AZ) I back my boys! Your entry about the $33s was money and I hate that it is on your blog...thank god I am no longer playing them.

I too have a blog, but I do not post the URL because I am just starting out...built my bankroll from 50 to over $12K in about 8 months of very limited play. my biggest challenge as a relative newbie is to learn to deal with the swings...I really like curtains blog because he has a set by set update...when I moved up, and added tables, the swings just magnify like crazy and it really hurts your confidence and mental stability at the table...8 buy ins is gone in 2 really bad sets and that used to be only 250 bucks on the 33s but now it is over 600 on the 77s...i know its all relative and that my bankroll could support higher limit play, but I would like to hear the challenges you are working to overcome as someone that is where I am hoping to get...that is why i started my blog because i felt there would be a lot of people in my shoes...having success...pretty certain that I am winning long term, but working on my entire game...bankroll management, overcoming burnout, all that good stuff...because all that is just as important as how you play.

You do this in one of your entries, about how you got unlucky...i know those nights, not to the same extent on an absolute scale, but relatively, i feel ur pain and respect how you powered through it...the ability to bounce back...mental toughness. that entry should be inspiration to us all, if i dropped 20k, i fear what would happen!

[XraySpeX]

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The website will contain articles on poker strategy, forums, videos of both my play and others' with audio analysis, this blog, and many more resources that you may need to make you a winning player.

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I guess i can't speak for everyone but this sounds awesome to me. I really appreciate the time that you are putting into this. I also enjoyed reading your blog.

Thanks and keep up the good work!
Xray

[Bonafone]

Look foward to reading your blog

[Velocity]

Any reason for picking 47outs as the name?

[psyduck]

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Look foward to reading your blog

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[Victorvdb]

18% ROI @ 55s = your return after entering a 55 is 1.18*55 = 64.9.

Take away the rake and you still expect a return of 64.9 except this time you only paid 50$ to enter it. 64.9 on $50 gives 29.8% ROI and not 28% like you stated.

Reduce the edge by 40% gives a ZSROI of 17,88% for a return of $58,94, factor in the rake and you get a profit of $3,94 per tournament for an ROI of 7,1%

You can either play 2 regulars or 5 turbos in the same frame of time.

2 regulars = 2* 9,9 = 19,8$ profit
5 turbos = 5* 3,94 = 19,7$ profit

so you're right, but you overestimated the effect by putting the rake at 10%. It's true that of the buyin, 10% gets added in rake. But in reality, rake is 1/11th of your buyin, not 1/10th.

You're right about the swings, and the reduction in $/hour, but I had to point out a flaw in the math.

Either that, or I've gone looney and can't do math anymore

[Jman28]

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18% ROI @ 55s = your return after entering a 55 is 1.18*55 = 64.9.

Take away the rake and you still expect a return of 64.9 except this time you only paid 50$ to enter it. 64.9 on $50 gives 29.8% ROI and not 28% like you stated.

Reduce the edge by 40% gives a ZSROI of 17,88% for a return of $58,94, factor in the rake and you get a profit of $3,94 per tournament for an ROI of 7,1%

You can either play 2 regulars or 5 turbos in the same frame of time.

2 regulars = 2* 9,9 = 19,8$ profit
5 turbos = 5* 3,94 = 19,7$ profit

so you're right, but you overestimated the effect by putting the rake at 10%. It's true that of the buyin, 10% gets added in rake. But in reality, rake is 1/11th of your buyin, not 1/10th.

You're right about the swings, and the reduction in $/hour, but I had to point out a flaw in the math.

Either that, or I've gone looney and can't do math anymore

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Thank you. This sounds right. I'll sleep on it and correct the blog tomorrow.

[Dead$$$Walking]

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Just playing man, I love you.

I mentioned my blog in my last thread, where I quoted it, but I want to make an official announcement. I have a blog. It is here: 47outs.com

I'm posting to let people see it, and as a motivation for me to write in it. I posted like 4 things today, the first day, and I have a few more waiting to be posted, but I hope to keep it up. It's started out very strategy based, but I hope it'll get a bit lighter soon. I need to save some content for my articles.

Your support and knowing that people are reading will be excellent motivation for me to churn out the words.

The blog is actually just a holding place right now for a big SNG site I'm planning. There are a few details in the first entry, but basically, it's gonna be awesome. So, enjoy! Please feel free to ask me about anything on there.

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And just like curtains, silliness in the very first article. Since one would only be guessing at his earnings % drop anyways, it makes no difference if figured from true or "Zero-sum" ROI. Everyone figures in the rake in total buyin in anyways when figuring for ROI.

Go back to yer 25-50 game....

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btw for some reason I cannot get my chat to work on Party or else I'd have had plenty to say that tourney we played together [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Does anyone have any clue why I suddenly can't chat ever....even if I try as an observer it doesnt warn me that I can't chat, just nothing registers ever. Hmmm Im kinda hijacking this thread huh?

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you shouldnt have called that fish that sucked out on you a XXXXXX XXXXXX