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#41
11-04-2007, 10:17 PM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
bills217, when using your suggestions are your 1u picks based on a bankroll of 100u? [/ QUOTE ] loosely yes, although I usually never have more than 50-60 units in play in a given week, so that's about all I keep in the books. 
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#42
11-05-2007, 12:15 AM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
I'm gonna say AF -2.5 is a correct line, although who knows, massive ND public might cause it to open at ND -40, and then Naj will be egging me to put 10% of bankroll on it using half-Kelly, and sweating outcomes is dumb 'cos there's no upside to being results-oriented [/ QUOTE ] The right side is the right side. Not maximizing a +150 bet when you think it should be -110 is hating money. Needless to say, I was right last week. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#43
11-05-2007, 12:17 AM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Adding 2u UNC +3.5 I think this is an overreaction to NC State beating Miami (who isn't very good either), which was largely because of turnovers. NC State was pretty awful before that. Also Mike Archer is their def. coordinator. [/ QUOTE ] miami -3.5 is accurate if Wright starts, all you jumping on UVa should realize Freeman had one completion and 3 picks. He likely can't possibly play that badly again, and if Wright is healthy he will play and Miami becomes a small value.
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#44
11-05-2007, 12:27 AM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
Miami is 5-4 but has to travel to BC and VaTech, so if they don't win this one they may not be bowl-eligible. They upset BC last year in this position, after being down 14-3 at the half. Miami was killed by turnovers, missed FGs, refs overturning a TD in regulation, and Freeman having a career bad day in his 7th start.
Wait to see if Wright will play, but motivation will be very, very high, and UVa is not that good, let's face it. edit: final Orange Bowl game ever, at nite, Miami crushed TxAM in similar situation.
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#45
11-05-2007, 12:36 AM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
I think I like UNC +3.5, but NC St. scares me. They've been double digit dogs the last 2 weeks and won both outright, now coming home to a big rivalry game. Not sure what to think here.
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#46
11-05-2007, 01:12 AM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm gonna say AF -2.5 is a correct line, although who knows, massive ND public might cause it to open at ND -40, and then Naj will be egging me to put 10% of bankroll on it using half-Kelly, and sweating outcomes is dumb 'cos there's no upside to being results-oriented [/ QUOTE ] The right side is the right side. Not maximizing a +150 bet when you think it should be -110 is hating money. Needless to say, I was right last week. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Wait a minute - half-Kelly? Is that as much as your wife will let you bet? What kind of sissy bets half-Kelly? Geez it's like ppl in this forum hate money or something... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#47
11-05-2007, 10:10 AM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
[ QUOTE ]
I think I like UNC +3.5, but NC St. scares me. They've been double digit dogs the last 2 weeks and won both outright, now coming home to a big rivalry game. Not sure what to think here. [/ QUOTE ] UNC has been a different team on the road than they are at home. Rivalry games are always sticky though.
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#48
11-05-2007, 10:13 AM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
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I think I like UNC +3.5, but NC St. scares me. [/ QUOTE ] As an NCSU graduate and fan, I have totally given up predicting what will happen with them week to week. Though I actually did have a "feeling" they would beat Miami. This should in no way influence your opinion about anything or be meaningful in any way.
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#49
11-05-2007, 10:50 AM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
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Looks like Sagarin predictor has Florida 14ish better than So. Carolina at a neutral. I don't want to pull a tlt, but South Carolina has been much more competitive than expected with Florida each of the last 2 seasons, and now the overall talent is as close as ever. You know this is the game Spurrier wants more than any other. The game is at South Carolina. The Gamecocks finally have their offense running on all cylinders after the failed Chris Smelley experiment (which I really never understood - I think Spurrier let his ego get in the way). This is not the same offense that managed a meager 6 at home against Vandy (who has a better defense than UF btw). Florida's defense is as bad as their offense is good, especially the secondary. Florida is gonna have to score a ton of points to cover 7ish (although they easily could). South Carolina has a good pass defense but is very soft against the run - Tebow at less than 100% plays into this well - Florida has virtually no north-south running game with the RB's. I expect to be playing SC here - and if it's 7.5 or more it'll be a max play. [/ QUOTE ] I'm a Florida alumnus, and I pretty much completely agree with you. I thought our defense would be bad at the beginning of the year but pretty solid by the end. Unfortunately our secondary hasn't improved at all, and our D Line (which was a relative strength at the beginning of the year) has been so decimated with injuries that it is worse than it was in September. It got so bad we took a true freshman backup OL and a week after switching him to the DL gave him a start against Vandy. I think I'll have to lay off this game. (Even though earlier in the year I took Kentuky +7, so I'm not above taking perceived (and ALMOST realized) value against my own team.)
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#50
11-05-2007, 10:58 AM
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Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
Though let me add a quick point about UF's rushing attack. Harvin ultimately is doing quite a bit of North-South running, he just does a little more East-West than other players. Also, Meyer said that Tebow should be close to 100%.
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