25NL, is there even a question?

[Pokey]

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TP's very, very rarely raise a hand they are folding.

Also, Pokey, he is never raising random overcards here...cmon.


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A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is raising here, and folding to a push.
K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is raising here, and folding to a push.
Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is raising here, and folding to a push.

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I do agree, we have probably 12 clean outs, probably against a ~6 out redraw (combining 2pr/set, probably still came out with the wrong number...) and that pushing isnt bad, but a call is better IMO.

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Calling throws away more than half of your outs: it prevents you from seeing the river card (a villain with a made hand is not going to give you a chance to see the river if you check the turn) and it prevents you from folding out your opponent right now (even if that only happens occasionally, it's money in your pocket when it does). Even more so, you're not going to be 100% sure about most of your outs; why fart around in the dark when you can put villain to the ultimate test and then let your (strong) cards do the talking?

[gimmetheloot]

Im fine with my outs being obvious, Ive found at 25NL (from alot of eprsonal experience there) that villains dont raise the flop with 2p+ and then fold to scare cards. They dont see you having the draws very often because you led the flop, and betting with draws is ridiculous, right? Right?
I agree that a push is +EV here, but I think a call is probably more +EV

Also, pokey, I dont think he is raising draws here. Tight-passives call draws.

[OnThePot]

The BB clearly has a hand he likes a lot. He's stuck in between the pre-flop raiser (for what that's worth) and a full pot lead, and he makes a real re-raise. A tight-passive player would need a two pair or better hand to make this play. He is not folding to a push, so discounting fold equity we are at best marginally +EV against his range if we get it in here. Calling is questionable as well. If we miss the turn we likely have to check/fold. If we hit the villain may not put another penny in the pot on that board. So, push if you don't mind playing tiny edges for stacks, otherwise fold.