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#21
08-01-2007, 09:14 PM
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Re: hypothetical
not actually getting any bonus lol, just thinking about some things that are related to this concept.
in the MTT forum FAQ, they say 10% ITM is excellent and no one has ever done better than 20%. obviously, as you say, most people are using a strategy that aims to build a stack and get to the final table. but could you really get to, say, 60-70% ITM by adapting to a strategy that was designed specifically to accomplish that? again, i'd appreciate any links on calculating these probabilities... 
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#24
08-03-2007, 12:10 PM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
not actually getting any bonus lol, just thinking about some things that are related to this concept. in the MTT forum FAQ, they say 10% ITM is excellent and no one has ever done better than 20%. obviously, as you say, most people are using a strategy that aims to build a stack and get to the final table. but could you really get to, say, 60-70% ITM by adapting to a strategy that was designed specifically to accomplish that? again, i'd appreciate any links on calculating these probabilities... [/ QUOTE ] MTT is easily the worst possible option. This should be immediately obvious. If not, think of a MTT as a cash game with escalating blinds that you're not allowed to quit in the middle if you happen to meet your goal. It's very unlikely that you'll get to the money without having doubled your stack at some point during the tournament.
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#25
08-04-2007, 01:36 AM
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Re: hypothetical
I would go for STTs, $50, super tight strategy till we get 4 handed then get aggro. When I was 1st building my bankroll I played ( not $50 at the time ) them as they are lowest risk imo. If you win the 1st STT its almost job done, in which case I might multi tbl loads of low limit NL cash games
If I was running out of hands to play I would play HU cash games & be very aggro
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#26
08-04-2007, 04:47 AM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
in the MTT forum FAQ, they say 10% ITM is excellent and no one has ever done better than 20%. [/ QUOTE ] I just checked PokerStars>Requests>Tournament History>Last 200 Tournaments. I am ITM 21% of the time. I play, on average, 3 a day. When I come home from work I make the money probably less than 10% of the time as I usually multitask and play for fun. Sometimes I donk off my chips if it is time for bed. On the weekend when I am rested I play more MTT's. I'd easily be ITM 80% of the time. And I am always multitabling. If you play ONE sng - doing nothing else- I don't see how it possible to not make the money. Maybe I could play less, and win more... [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]
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#27
08-04-2007, 11:50 AM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] in the MTT forum FAQ, they say 10% ITM is excellent and no one has ever done better than 20%. [/ QUOTE ] I just checked PokerStars>Requests>Tournament History>Last 200 Tournaments. I am ITM 21% of the time. I play, on average, 3 a day. When I come home from work I make the money probably less than 10% of the time as I usually multitask and play for fun. Sometimes I donk off my chips if it is time for bed. On the weekend when I am rested I play more MTT's. I'd easily be ITM 80% of the time. And I am always multitabling. Maybe I could play less, and win more... [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] does that last 200 tournaments function include SNG's? obviously it's possible to have a higher ITM% on single table SNG's. anyways, 200 tournaments is a small sample. if the MTT regulars say no one has ever shown a long term MTT ITM% of > 20%, i believe them. [ QUOTE ] If you play ONE sng - doing nothing else- I don't see how it possible to not make the money. [/ QUOTE ] ok...but we're talking about MTT's, not SNG's, right?
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#28
08-04-2007, 11:45 PM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
ok...but we're talking about MTT's, not SNG's, right? [/ QUOTE ] yes, you are right. I didn't make myself clear. That was in reference to doubling a $200 bankroll. But, if are seriously concentrating -not multi-tabling, not watching porno, not playing 48 hours straight- and you cant make the money 50% of the time in MTT's then you are just playing over your head.
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#29
08-05-2007, 01:54 AM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
If you play ONE sng - doing nothing else- I don't see how it possible to not make the money. [/ QUOTE ] Try it, and you'll see. If you can make the money 80% of the time in a 10 player $215 tournament, you will make more than $100/hour, very safely, and have a ROI people can't sustain at $5 SNGs. Maybe you have the idea of playing tightly, letting the other players knock each other out, perhaps stealing some blinds but not risking your whole stack. That's also the plan of five of your opponents, and at most half of you will make the money. [ QUOTE ] On the weekend when I am rested I play more MTT's. I'd easily be ITM 80% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Your actual stats say 21%, and you jump to 80% being possible? You need to double up or the equivalent about 3 times to survive the bubble with a slightly below average stack. No one knows how to do that half of the time, and if you did, the resulting ROI would be fantastic.
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