10/15 NL- opinions on this laydown.....

[soon2b]

i only read op's post, but I think we are being leveled here.. or I hope.

[adanthar]

there are no words to describe how terrible this is (says the guy who correctly called the exact improbable hand this same time last week)

[fitnessfreak]

[ QUOTE ]
Very fast on the flop- maybe. Very fast on the turn- definitely. I'm fully admitting that I played this hand wrong on at least one street, and possibly two.

The point of me posting this (and I don't post often) was to find out how many guys out there actually play according to their reads sometimes even if the odds dictate to play otherwise. Apparently not many. Do I play every hand I flop big like this? Of course not, but in this situation I give his hand two possibilites and my hand didn't beat either one of them.

Lee

[/ QUOTE ]

The best read based laydown i ever made was TT on a flop of K45 where i bluff raised the bettor and then caught a T on the turn and got check raised. Saved a cool 1k on that hand, folded my hand face up and he goes "how can you fold that?!?" and proceeds to table KK.

However, i had played 50 hours of live poker with this guy over the last 5 days and we were both on the tail end of a 24 hour stretch and both about 600BB's deep. I have never before and since had such a strong read on a player as with this guy. It was weird that I was 100% sure about what he had based on his oversized pfr, weak flop lead and turn cr (i had NEVER seen him check-raise the turn without the nuts). He was robotically predictable, especially with stacks this deep.

Obviously the read needed to fold here was exceptionally strong. I will probably never fold middle set on a dry board again, unless some weirdo situation like that comes up again.

What i am trying to say is, its all well and good to fold a very strong non-nut hand, but from the looks of your post your read on this guy was not even close to being strong enough to make this fol imo.

[ceczar]

[ QUOTE ]
In my hand, I came to the conclusion that the only hands he could have played the way he did were AA and 33. I wasn't "guessing" that's what he had, I in fact eliminated every other hand as a possibility in my mind. Was I correct? Who knows, but I went with my read. And like I said, folding face up gave me a great opportunity to set the table up to buy pots and pick off bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

the problem with your whole "go with my reads" thing is that we all know terrible players who make terrible reads all the time. one common mistake is to incorrectly eliminate certain hands from your opponents range because you could never imagine someone playing a hand that way. this leads to the terrible player putting the opponent on one hand exactly, usually when you don't have close to enough information to narrow it down that much. for example, there's no way you could narrow his hand down to AA and AA only. it'd be one thing to narrow his hand down to QQ on the turn (a physical read that tells you he has the nuts), but AA is so far from the nuts that there is no physical read that would let you know that's what he had.

[rand]

1. if getting leveled then GJ
2. if not then some people could tone it down a lil
3...it seems like you only start considering his range on the river (even though youre prolly not) but important info here is how often does this player 2-3barrel with ak/q and how does he react to a check raise if he does have qq+??
i think that this needs to be a fold preflop if your gonna play it this way unless your answers to my questions are right, bc in order to make up for your whiffed flops you need to play big pots with this hand, which gets me to my main point
given your stack sizes and his range i think your best bet is to lead the flop...he almost def raises your lead with qq+ and he may even try a bluff with his non paired hands...YOU NEED TO BUILD A POT and the line you took almost always fails to accomplish this, check raise is way strong, at least bet turn
last point, if he really is an ABC player than im pretty sure he doesnt have an overpair here, they c-bet these flops-it does, however, "feel" like 33 to me even though his range is much larger and you have a 3...with live poker sometimes you can just "know" BUT i still call here, talk about odds...

[The Ocho]

skipping the thread because im sure its just people calling you some variation of dumb/noob...

in general, its a pretty bad idea to completely eliminate hand possibilities for a guy based on some pretty thin assumptions, such as "he would have raised preflop with that" or "he would have bet that hand on the flop." there are a lot of ways to play different hands, and players have all sorts of reasons for doing things that may just seem wrong and/or insane to you.

basically, my advice is try to not get too rigid in your hand reading and keep those reads fluid. that way when you eventually find opponents who mix things up well, you will not be totally screwed.

[Kosmos33]

It is surprising to me how so many people are acting like OP left $1275 on the table in this hand. Its not like he mucked the winner after Villain showed AQ (again Villain never showed his hand). On the surface this seems like an apparent "amazing" or "horrendous" laydown, however, I believe this was actually a fairly insignificant EV decision.

I feel this was either a well played 33 or a slightly misplayed QQ or AQ by villain, with a few other possibilities. To put some numbers on it, I think OP had the winner here between 10% to 33% of the time here, making the call somewhere between a -$232 to a +$158 EV decision, and most likely relatively close to an insignificant EV call.

The most interesting thing to me is the Metagame aspect of this hand. No matter what the OP's EV was on this call, it seems he made significantly more in this game by showing this laydown, and taking advantage of it for the remainder of the night.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
It is surprising to me how so many people are acting like OP left $1275 on the table in this hand. Its not like he mucked the winner after Villain showed AQ (again Villain never showed his hand). On the surface this seems like an apparent "amazing" or "horrendous" laydown, however, I believe this was actually a fairly insignificant EV decision.

I feel this was either a well played 33 or a slightly misplayed QQ or AQ by villain, with a few other possibilities. To put some numbers on it, I think OP had the winner here between 10% to 33% of the time here, making the call somewhere between a -$232 to a +$158 EV decision, and most likely relatively close to an insignificant EV call.

The most interesting thing to me is the Metagame aspect of this hand. No matter what the OP's EV was on this call, it seems he made significantly more in this game by showing this laydown, and taking advantage of it for the remainder of the night.

[/ QUOTE ]

What regarding the villain's play in this hand leads you to believe he has a FH up to 90% of the time? The OP badly misplayed this hand on the turn and the river call isn't nearly as close as you are trying to say it is.

[ob1]

lee, which one are you at that table. i was playing that game this weekend also, agree that everyone there except the whale was ABC if not total nits. who was this hand against, that makes a big difference but there is almost never any reason to fold this hand IMO against anyone at that table without more specific reads or better action dictating that you are beat, i feel like you folded this hand just for some metagame purpose like look what i can fold hopefully losing this 1.2k will pay off for me more in the long run by showing this nitty fold even tho i am wrong, even if it is like a total spew value is so easy to come by in that game that u can just be like ok cooler, next hand. PM and let me know which player u were, im down there all the time.

[mrcoughman]

I am surprised you guys all disagree with the fold.

I myself would have open folded the flop face up first to act, but I've been playing that 10/15 game for years.