10/20 - KK - Hand protection + Value Raise + Fold Equity??

[Heisenb3rg]

I just think his range includes plenty of hands with T's 9's, pairs and combos.

The 3 connected middle board is what scares me..

I guess if I c/r I could trap him drawing dead with a hand like QJ.. I just don't know how to weigh this against finding a way to knock out his gutshots and pairs (on the turn obv) in what's a huge pot.

If the turn comes 9/T and im heads up against CO im very comfortable, if im in a 3 way pot everyone now has 8 outs to chop, any jack has draws etc..

If he had a tighter range I would comfortable...

I could be giving too much weighting to this, which is why I posted the hand..

[admiralfluff]

He's not going to fold pair+gs for 2 bets. You also aren't factoring in the times when you donk and CO just calls. This will happen a significant amount of the time you are ahead. When he raises the donk, we just barely have enough to 3bet (maybe). When you c/r, you get 2 bets in against his full range almost always.

[jstill]

yeah thats what i was gonna say exactly fluff, i dont think sb folds the hands u want him to TT, Tx or 4x with a pair (latter two arent much of his range) and 9x or 5x with or without a pair obviously he never folds, and bb has to raise and u have to have him beat for him to fold those anyways when u donk, heck of a parlay to try to protect from hands i dont think u can anyways.

cr'ing more often leads to good results where u make money here, trapping both for 2 bets when ahead is preferable to donking imho, i dont have much more reasoning tho besides that

fold equity vs a better hand seems like a nil possibility i never give it much thought and expect better hands than KK here to never fold at any point no matter what line we take and how much strenght it would normally exhibit. This is a decent turn for it tho

if we get raised and other villain cold calls I dont really like a 3bet on the flop, i mite cr the turn or calldown depending on the card or a random whim [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[yellowjack]

Is villain here prone to cap lightly vs a 3-bet in a 3-way pot? Your hand range looks much more wide than it should be.

[Catt]

Preface: I have a personal pet peeve about the phrase "protect your hand" because I dont think the language means the same thing to a large enough percentage of commentators / posters to make it clear what the author intends.

[ QUOTE ]
You dont think there is a lot of value in hand protection, trying to knock the player with a loose range out of a terrible flop like this??

[/ QUOTE ]

"Hand protection" does not, in my usage, mean "knock someone out." It means "put them in a lose-lose situation." That lose-lose is forcing the opponent(s) to: (1) fold a hand that has real outs (particularly more actual outs than the opponent might otherwise calculate against your range given your actual specific hand), or (2) make an unprofitable call. When you protect your hand effectively in this context you should usually hope that your opponent(s) make the mistake of calling (unprofitably); in some circumstances you may actually want your opponent(s) to fold correctly -- but usually we like to play in a manner that induces mistakes in our opponents, and an opponent's call in an unprofitable situation is generally better for us than that opponent correctly folding.

Looking at the full post:

[ QUOTE ]
You dont think there is a lot of value in hand protection, trying to knock the player with a loose range out of a terrible flop like this??

The reason I posted this is, I strongly deviated my play from the standard because I

a) knew CO's tight range totally missed the board, and I can play my hand easily against his range.
b) this is a terrible board against a loose range in a massive pot. I want that player out of the hand... I could get into many sticky situations if bad cards come up and hes still in the pot, forcing me to make BIG mistakes.

I dont understand how you can call my play awful without downplaying the value of hand protection.

I certainly have an equity edge to get agressive on the flop, but it definitly is not a large equity edge. I deviated my play from the standard because I thought maximizing the chances of winning the pot outweighed the value of pushing a tiny equity edge.

The fact no one has even mentioned hand protection makes me skeptical anyone has even critically analyzed the situation before posting, instead of just giving the standard auto pilot way to play most flops with an overpair...

[/ QUOTE ]

The foregoing sounds like you're using "hand protection" to mean "make others fold incorrectly" and also that you're implying that many other posters aren't considering fully the relative merits of different approaches (as opposed to considering and choosing a different approach). Inducing an incorrect fold is profitable and a wonderful feeling (especially in a big pot); but you need to think through what hands are likely out there that will fold incorrectly, especially in the hands of the "loose passivish [but not calling station]" guy you describe. I'd generally agree with others that you're very unlikely to fold hands that you actually want to fold here -- I think you're much more likely to generate incorrect calls and continuations (and profit) by playing a more conventional "standard" approach through a flop C/R, than you are to set up a grand opportunity to force out the loose passive guy on the turn. I also generally agree that in a three-handed pot with a known tough opponent and a known donator, I am going to structure my play so as to try and exploit the donator (and it should go without saying that I think trying to generate an incorrect fold from donator to face known dude HU is less exploitative than trying to induce donator to donate more money in circusmtances that I believe he will rarely make an incorrect fold).

[Heisenb3rg]

thanks for the advice guys... I probabily should have just played it ABC..

Just a little caveat that the reason I thought he'd make an incorrect fold on the turn is the potential that the turn is going to go for a ride. If I check/raise and CO calls, he's closing the action. Pair + gutshots can profitbly put in 2 bets on this turn.
If I donk and CO raises, I may be planning to 3-bet, and CO cap... So the mathematics dictate a fold because of potential action.. Even though I am the only one who knows how many bets im going to put in..

So for the situations im planning to put in 2 bets, he made an incorrect fold.. But the situations Im planning to put in 3 bets he made a correct fold. So it's correct to fold against a percieved range, but not against my hand (if im not planning to 3-bet).

I have changed my mind, the above is food for thought... I still think its close however...

[gotthenuts06]

I'd fold. You are not getting any value.