QQ overpair low-drawy flop

[TheDivineRod]

I prob shove but I think you're going to run into a set a decent amount of the time.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
let me start off by saying i generally HATE posts that say "look i soved it, you must fold, or oohh oohh, must call!!!", but im doing this jsut to give an idea of villains range and what youre most likely looking at.

also, dont you have a better read than "25/13"?
anway, shoving is standard i guess, but vs lots of players its really not that great. his raise sizing makes me think he has set much more often than a combo draw, but youre not in great shape either way.

i think this is a fairly accurate range for villain, and again i think he raises his sets/2prs/strts with a much higher frequency than his combo draws, but theres not really a good way to weight rangs with pokerstove.


Board: 5d 4d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.712% 35.14% 01.57% 16699 746.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 63.288% 61.72% 01.57% 29328 746.50 { 77-22, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad3d, A2s, 76s, 65s, 53s+, 43s }


and villain is obv never folding, so dont even consider that

[/ QUOTE ]

is there a reason you left out so many other over-card/flush draws? Would it change the results much?

[cs3]

i left them out because becaue i felt like they were really unlikely. it wouldnt change the results much anyway, but i think including all combos of 56s and 66/77 for exapmle, balance out the rare times he ever limps PF and then ch/r's huge with a hand like TJdd or KQdd.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
let me start off by saying i generally HATE posts that say "look i soved it, you must fold, or oohh oohh, must call!!!", but im doing this jsut to give an idea of villains range and what youre most likely looking at.

also, dont you have a better read than "25/13"?
anway, shoving is standard i guess, but vs lots of players its really not that great. his raise sizing makes me think he has set much more often than a combo draw, but youre not in great shape either way.

i think this is a fairly accurate range for villain, and again i think he raises his sets/2prs/strts with a much higher frequency than his combo draws, but theres not really a good way to weight rangs with pokerstove.


Board: 5d 4d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.712% 35.14% 01.57% 16699 746.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 63.288% 61.72% 01.57% 29328 746.50 { 77-22, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad3d, A2s, 76s, 65s, 53s+, 43s }


and villain is obv never folding, so dont even consider that

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure he isn't folding, but lol @ villain not ever having 88-JJ, or any non-nut flush draws, or any non-combo-draw flush draws. Your range is just ridiculous. Try:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.478% 48.28% 02.20% 48751 2222.00 { 22+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, A5s-A4s, A2s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 76s, 54s, 43s }
Hand 1: 49.522% 47.32% 02.20% 47785 2222.00 { QhQs }


...and that did not include ONE SINGLE BLUFF.

[cs3]

i think your erange is way too wide to be honest, and dont forget that villain ALWAYS checkraieses his monsters but he may or may not ch/r his draws/bluffs.

so the frequencies are copmpletey off and you need to weight that range with how often he would actually play each hand that way.


this is EXACTLY why i made the disclalimer about hating pokerstove posts

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
i think your erange is way too wide to be honest, and dont forget that villain ALWAYS checkraieses his monsters but he may or may not ch/r his draws/bluffs.

so the frequencies are copmpletey off and you need to weight that range with how often he would actually play each hand that way.

this is EXACTLY why i made the disclalimer about hating pokerstove posts

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, then pokerstove isn't the problem, lol. If 2 people agree on a range, then pokerstove tells you EXACTLY whether shoving is good here. No more, no less.

OF COURSE you should fold if villain's range is 2pair or better + draws that have 50% equity. [censored] DUH. We don't really need Pokerstove for that. But that range is tight enough to crack a walnut.

A 25/13's range both for limp-calling preflop and for over-playing a drawy 345 flop is WAY wider than that. Arguably wider than my range. My range doesn't include a single pure bluff, it's all overpairs, 2 pairs, the nuts, and VERY GOOD draws. Not one weak draw or any bluff with overcards, etc.

And my range even includes hands like KK and AA that have you crushed.

[cs3]

ya i understand all that. my point is only that i dont think he actually plays hands such as TT of KJdd for exmple, that way very often at all. i think when he ch/r the flop he usually has a set or a strt.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
ya i understand all that. my point is only that i dont think he actually plays hands such as TT of KJdd for exmple, that way very often at all. i think when he ch/r the flop he usually has a set or a strt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Back when I started NL, I was a classic bad 25/13.

Flop c/r with any flush draw was fantastically standard for me, because all the l33t players told me to play draws like sets. Mostly, players like this are not very passive post-flop in general and I am not sure why you expect them to be.

[cs3]

ok, you almost have me convinced... but just knowing villain is 25/13 (over what sample size, etc?) without a single other read, doesnt mean hes super donk aggro postflop

maybe fulltilt plays different, but i still play these stakes lots, and lately on Stars this line from a tagfish isalmsot always a monster.