Betting on another 911

[dazraf69]

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I expect this thread will be locked soon for lack of BFI content, anyway.

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Put your money in index funds! ( Mods no need to lock this thread anymore [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

[Shoe]

There is no reason to bet on another 911.

If another 911 happens it is very simple what to do.

1. Sell everything you have as soon as the markets open again. (Yes your stocks will take a hit but they are going take a much bigger hit over the next week or so).

2. Buy Defense/Security/Bomb Detection, etc... firms. These will go up in the aftermath.

3. ~1 month later, start buying all all the bargains that are out there. Once the market seems like it can't get any worse, this is the time to start buying.

Hopefully, we will never be faced with another situation like this, but that is, in a nutshell, how to profit without even having to plan for it.

Also, if you are betting on another 911 with your current portfolio, odds are against it occuring no matter what the fear mongering media wants you to believe. You are better off investing like we do have a future.

If the terrorists somehow manage to destroy our country it's not going to matter if you own any stocks or not. If you really think this is going to happen (the chance of this happening is virtually nil), then you should be stocking up on survival supplies (non-perishable food, water, guns/ammo, bikes, tools, etc....), that is assuming you survive the initial attack.

[wiseheart]

I love how 911 is still such a buzz word...everyone responds to a thread titled "betting on another 911" but I posted this days ago with a less catchy title and got only 4 responses http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=3#Post11821742

Culture of fear is right...

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[ QUOTE ]
There is no reason to bet on another 911.

If another 911 happens it is very simple what to do.

1. Sell everything you have as soon as the markets open again. (Yes your stocks will take a hit but they are going take a much bigger hit over the next week or so).

2. Buy Defense/Security/Bomb Detection, etc... firms. These will go up in the aftermath.

3. ~1 month later, start buying all all the bargains that are out there. Once the market seems like it can't get any worse, this is the time to start buying.

Hopefully, we will never be faced with another situation like this, but that is, in a nutshell, how to profit without even having to plan for it.

Also, if you are betting on another 911 with your current portfolio, odds are against it occuring no matter what the fear mongering media wants you to believe. You are better off investing like we do have a future.

If the terrorists somehow manage to destroy our country it's not going to matter if you own any stocks or not. If you really think this is going to happen (the chance of this happening is virtually nil), then you should be stocking up on survival supplies (non-perishable food, water, guns/ammo, bikes, tools, etc....), that is assuming you survive the initial attack.

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Sorry, I know it's your birthday, but the information in this post is just stupid.

[Fishhead24]

How can anyone have over 60% of their investment funds in the U.S. stock market at this time.

Are they nuts?

[PokerFox]

Where do you want it, Fish? Under my mattress in cold hard cash?

Anyone that's under age 40 that has less than 60% of their retirement/savings/long term money not in the stock market is an idiot, IMO. Unless you're within 5-8 years of retirement, THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT A SHORT TERM/TIMING GAME.

I'm in my 20s and have 75% of my money in the market. The sky is not falling. This has happened millions of times over the last 80 years, and it has been consistently proven time and time again that the people who left their money in through fluctuations come out on top on almost any long term time period you can quote (any 10 year period, any 20 year period, etc).

Keep pulling it out, get taxed, and reinvest if you want to "when you think it's safe", I'll leave my money in, compound interest, get taxed at the long term capital gains rate, and not worry the Dow dropped 300 points today and gained 280 tomorrow.

[kimchi]

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Anyone that's under age 40 that has less than 60% of their retirement/savings/long term money not in the stock market is an idiot, IMO. Unless you're within 5-8 years of retirement, THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT A SHORT TERM/TIMING GAME.


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You can't brand people idiots for being conservative. There is no cookie-cutter investment approach for long-term savings, despite Wall St's constant mantra.

Before you call people idiots, you have to consider their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Sure they'll be giving up some EV, but maybe one of their objectives is to be able to sleep at night.

I do however agree that timing for the vast majority of people is -EV, and market volatility shouldn't influence your long term asset allocations.

[PRE]

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[ QUOTE ]
Anyone that's under age 40 that has less than 60% of their retirement/savings/long term money not in the stock market is an idiot, IMO. Unless you're within 5-8 years of retirement, THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT A SHORT TERM/TIMING GAME.


[/ QUOTE ]

You can't brand people idiots for being conservative. There is no cookie-cutter investment approach for long-term savings, despite Wall St's constant mantra.

Before you call people idiots, you have to consider their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Sure they'll be giving up some EV, but maybe one of their objectives is to be able to sleep at night.

I do however agree that timing for the vast majority of people is -EV, and market volatility shouldn't influence your long term asset allocations.

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If you're investing over a long enough period, stocks are less risky.

[Phone Booth]

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Where do you want it, Fish? Under my mattress in cold hard cash?

Anyone that's under age 40 that has less than 60% of their retirement/savings/long term money not in the stock market is an idiot, IMO. Unless you're within 5-8 years of retirement, THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT A SHORT TERM/TIMING GAME.


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It certainly isn't for those who can't time the market. But that's like saying that everyone who plays poker is an idiot because on average, playing poker is a losing proposition.


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I'm in my 20s and have 75% of my money in the market. The sky is not falling. This has happened millions of times over the last 80 years, and it has been consistently proven time and time again that the people who left their money in through fluctuations come out on top on almost any long term time period you can quote (any 10 year period, any 20 year period, etc).


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Nikkei-225 1987-2007, DJIA 1929-1954, 1966-1982. And those were *nominal* declines, which is insanely awful over a stretch that long. You'd note that on an inflation-adjusted basis, DJIA had an unbelievably awful stretch from 1929 to 1982 as well. It merely doubled from the high in 1929 to the low in 1982 over the course of 53 years, far lagging behind inflation.

[gonebroke2]

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Nikkei-225 1987-2007, DJIA 1929-1954, 1966-1982. And those were *nominal* declines, which is insanely awful over a stretch that long. You'd note that on an inflation-adjusted basis, DJIA had an unbelievably awful stretch from 1929 to 1982 as well. It merely doubled from the high in 1929 to the low in 1982 over the course of 53 years, far lagging behind inflation.

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Those poor investors who bought in the late 80s in Japan have been waiting 20 yrs to break even and they are not even half way home. Maybe they will have to leave it to their grandkids to get their money back.