NL 100 AA gets raised on the flop. Is the always a fold?

[boltonflats]

With 12/1 I'd call his raise and c/c turn or push on turn. The only hand I see you not ahead right now is 99. 22-66 is probably not calling a big raise on the flop with 12/1 stats.

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be highly surprised if this were a set. He almost never raises pf, and rarely even sees the flop. Because of his low PFR, you can't rule out big pairs because he didn't 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]For realz, preflop isn't the same here but postflop is pretty close. This is also against a 12/1 (exact same from the OP)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($69.50)
SB ($30.80)
BB ($39.25)
UTG ($26.10)
UTG+1 ($23.35)
MP1 ($33.90)
MP2 ($21.60)
Hero ($50.25)
CO ($32.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 2 cards.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $1, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.50.

Flop: ($6) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $6</font>, MP1 folds, Hero folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $12</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $6.

Turn: ($30) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $30</font>, UTG calls $9.10 (All-In).

River: ($56.20) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $56.20

Results in below:
UTG has Ah Ad (one pair, aces).
Button has Kc Kh (one pair, kings).
Outcome: UTG wins $56.20. Button wins $16.90.

[MadMike]

This is not a fold.
His range is AKd,AQd,KK-99,22,44. You are ahead of that range.

What I'm not sure of is the best line to maximize equity here. If you reraise, it has to be AI- and his calling range is AKd, AQd, KK, QQ, 99, 22, 44. This is about breakeven plus the overlay already in the pot so it's a +e.v. play.

Not sure about just calling and seeing the turn card. Diamonds complete a draw, a high card could kill your action if he'd got KK-TT.

I'd probably keep it simple and just push here to be honest- but with the realistic expectation that I'm at best 50-50 if he calls.

[BJJIII]

ARRRRRRR IN.

[AlexB182]

[ QUOTE ]
I would go all-in because you have ace-ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. Agree completely...

[Rambino]

Pushpushpush.

Even though his stats don't scream LAG, I would also add a simple stop-n-go to this guy's range.

Your large range from BB could lead many to believe that you have AK, JJ or some other vulnerable hand, which makes this a good spot to make a move from good position.

The flop missed you unless you have a big pair, and against tighter players raising a crap flop into the pf raiser can be a very effective move (as evidenced by this thread).

So, given the action in this hand, I would add to his range any pp and any sc, in addition to the legitimate hands mentioned above.

Net result - you are way ahead of his range.

[Dennisa]

[ QUOTE ]
With 12/1 I'd call his raise and c/c turn or push on turn. The only hand I see you not ahead right now is 99. 22-66 is probably not calling a big raise on the flop with 12/1 stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would argue against that logic. Set miners learn quickly that any pair played for one raise is profitable. He easily could have 22/44 here. He is getting 16-1 to flop his set. All pocket pairs only account for 6 in his vpip. I would venture to say he fold a majority of sb hand, so as not to up his vpip.

[br.carlos]

I'm sorry for this noob question, but can someone plz explain me what this mean?

"Opponent is 12/1, but with an AF of 6."

Thx a lot.

[kidpokeher]

Refers to pokertracker stats - vpip, pfr and aggression factor, respectively.