Understanding Variance Part II:

[BuddyQ]

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it seems to me like this is calculating it as if u had that edge on each individual hand.

And when you factor in variable edges like position, cards dealt, coolers, etc., I doubt anyone has much more than like a 51% edge averaged PER HAND against a thinking opponent.

It also assumes every pot is the same size, you could hold up 20 times in tiny pots then get sucked out on for a huge one and that will significantly alter your graph from what it shows here.

This thing works for the longterm, not for the short-term.

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Good points. Maybe we could think of each point not as an individual hand, but as a 'session' of say, 1000 hands. What do you think your average edge is after playing 1000 hands? If a winning player's is 5% (is that realistic?), then after 453 sessions of 1000 hands (453000 hands)- run the simulator, I quess you could have a loss or break even period with a 5% edge after 453000 hands, but it would be extreamly rare.

Holy S! It doesn't look that rare, after I ran a bunch of times.