Understanding Variance Part II:
 

Here is another equity curve generator. With this one you can enter a variable that estimates your 'edge' If you think your edge is 5% then enter ".55" in the 'Win Prob.' window (the default is .50 -no edge) Beat: it only generates 453 "hands," (but you can run multiple 'sessions' of 453 in the 'Lines Qty.' ie. enter 1000 and thats 453000 hands)

http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

Incidentally what do you think is the average winning player's edge? If you got an edge, this thing makes a pretty convincing argument that extreamly large losing runs are do to tilting off your edge, and not adverse variance.

Re: Understanding Variance Part II:
 

crazy stuff after running a 100 grapsh i think my edge in the game is 0.52 approx. As from 0.60 i didn't see a negative profit ever over the sample

Re: Understanding Variance Part II:
 

it seems to me like this is calculating it as if u had that edge on each individual hand.

And when you factor in variable edges like position, cards dealt, coolers, etc., I doubt anyone has much more than like a 51% edge averaged PER HAND against a thinking opponent.

It also assumes every pot is the same size, you could hold up 20 times in tiny pots then get sucked out on for a huge one and that will significantly alter your graph from what it shows here.

This thing works for the longterm, not for the short-term.

Re: Understanding Variance Part II:
 

[ QUOTE ]
it seems to me like this is calculating it as if u had that edge on each individual hand.

And when you factor in variable edges like position, cards dealt, coolers, etc., I doubt anyone has much more than like a 51% edge averaged PER HAND against a thinking opponent.

It also assumes every pot is the same size, you could hold up 20 times in tiny pots then get sucked out on for a huge one and that will significantly alter your graph from what it shows here.

This thing works for the longterm, not for the short-term.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. Maybe we could think of each point not as an individual hand, but as a 'session' of say, 1000 hands. What do you think your average edge is after playing 1000 hands? If a winning player's is 5% (is that realistic?), then after 453 sessions of 1000 hands (453000 hands)- run the simulator, I quess you could have a loss or break even period with a 5% edge after 453000 hands, but it would be extreamly rare.

Holy S! It doesn't look that rare, after I ran a bunch of times.